Groundhog Day Results: See them here

Digital WritersThe Weather Network
Digital Writers

The results are in: It's a 50/50 split in Canada, with one extra vote for spring coming from our friend Phil in the U.S.

Historic snowfall. Record-smashing cold. Winter has been in high gear for the first month of 2024 across much of Canada, and that has many Canadians asking an age-old question: Will spring be here soon?

That depends on who you ask. Looks like the Canadian prognosticators are split on the matter, while Punxsutawney Phil in the U.S. cast a vote in favour of early spring.

Snapshot: 2024 results

CHERYL - CANVA - 2024 groundhog

The holiday is a popular tradition celebrated in North America on February 2. According to folklore, if the groundhog sees its shadow, it will be scared and return to its burrow. That translates to a forecast of six more weeks of winter on the way. Under cloudy skies, the groundhog stays out to visit, suggesting we'll see an early spring.

Not unlike their human counterparts, the marmot meteorologists don't always agree on the forecast. Below is a collection of predictions from many of the continent's prominent weather prognosticators.


Lucy The Lobster: Barrington Passage, N.S. - Six more weeks of winter

Who says groundhogs are the only ones that can predict the weather?

Lucy is a local celebrity, drawing a crowd this groundhog day. Unfortunately, for spring lovers, Lucy had bad news. She saw her shadow, and predicted six more weeks of winter.

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Shubenacadie Sam: Nova Scotia - Early spring

Shubenacadie Sam was scheduled to be the first prognosticator to reveal her predictions, but she was fashionably late, making an appearance a few minutes after Lucy.

Sam says early spring.

Fred La Marmotte: Quebec - Early spring

After the sudden and tragic loss of Fred La Marmotte last year, event organizer, Roberto Blondin, announced that the tradition would continue this year with Fred’s successor: Fred Junior.

The results were made in front of Permaculture school in Val d'Espoir, and Fred had good news for winter-weary folks: spring is just around the corner!

Wiarton Willie: Ontario - Early spring

APRIL WALKER - Wiarton Willie

(April Walker/The Weather Network)

Willie made his prediction around 8:07 am (EST), calling for an early spring to a crowd of cheers.

APRIL WALKER - Wiarton Willie

The scene in Wiarton on Groundhog Day. (April Walker/The Weather Network)

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Folks who didn't attend the festivities can continue the fun Saturday at the free Family Festival Events at Bluewater Park from 10 am to 4 pm. Events this year include a gaming trailer, rock climbing wall, axe throwing, photo booth, human foosball, a trackless train and so much more!

Manitoba Merv - Six more weeks of winter

Manitoba Merv has been leading local Groundhog Day celebrations for over 30 years.

He started as an actor in children's puppet shows at Oak Hammock Marsh Interpretive Centre but has since moved on to a Groundhog Day mascot.

Merv made his bold predictions around 8 am (CST), and it's not looking good for spring enthusiasts. Merv saw his shadow, locking down six more weeks of cold on the Prairies.

Balzac Billy: Alberta - Six more weeks of winter

In Alberta, we have Balzac Billy, a hog in disguise.

Today, Billy greeted people in person at the Blue Grass Nursery and Garden Centre, predicting six more weeks of winter.

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Our neighbour to the south: Punxsutawney Phil

Mr. Phil is calling an early spring!

A recap of Groundhog Day predictions, 2020-2023

Groundhog Day success rate since 2020

Groundhog success rate (Source: and Matthew Grinter, a meteorologist at The Weather Network. Graphic: Canva Pro/April Walker, Video Specialist at The Weather Network)

Take a look at how Groundhogs have voted in the past, and you'll find Willie has a sunnier outlook than others.

"Statistically, Willie would likely always have a better chance of predicting an early spring due to Wiarton's placement in the snowbelts, a.k.a. the land of lake-effect snow and cloud," explains Weather Network meteorologist Kelly Sonnenburg. "Willie is a glass half-full type of rodent."

Click here for a refresher on last year's predictions.