How a super typhoon will alter Canada's late-October weather

A typhoon in the Pacific Ocean will have impacts on Canada's weather in the long range forecast to end October. Here's how that happens

Super Typhoon Bolaven swirls off the coast of Asia, but its track will have more of an impact on North America than its neighbouring coastline.

It's important to note that Canada will not be hit by a typhoon, but instead impacted by its energy in a week or so.

Visit our Complete Guide to Fall 2023 for an in-depth look at the Fall Forecast, tips to plan for it and much more!

Bolaven's westward track has turned north and eastwards, a path known as a recurving typhoon. The jet stream will carry a weakening Bolaven across the Pacific Ocean and deliver its typhoon energy to the shores of B.C. as its first stop. This typhoon's influence will help to amplify the jet stream, leading to a contrasting pattern in Canada's west versus east.

Baron - Recurving typhoon track - Oct11.jpg


A recurving typhoon east of Japan results in a ridge over Western Canada. Ridges don't lead to much exciting weather, but B.C can expect mild, dry and above-seasonal weather through late-October. Some of this may nose into Alberta as well, offering abundant sunshine, too.

Baron - End of fall pattern - Oct12.jpg

WATCH: Hurricane, tropical cyclone, typhoon. What's the real difference?


Where the jet stream goes up, it also comes down, and the eastern Prairies, Ontario and Quebec are under the risk for a deep trough the middle of next week.

In this pattern, temperatures likely fall 5-10°C, or more, below-seasonal. The cool-down during mid-October, and over the warm waters of the Great Lakes, is a recipe for the first lake-effect flakes to the notable snow belts. This is typical for Ontarians this time of year, however the recurving typhoon re-enforces this colder pattern. Storm tracks favoured in this set-up also include Prairie clipper systems and soggy weather moving into Atlantic Canada.

Content continues below
Baron - Lake effect snow regions.jpg

It is unclear how long this pattern will hold on for, but we'll begin to see it take shape by late next week and possibly lingering into Halloween.

EXPLAINER: How could a storm on the other side of the globe affect Canada?