Winter’s messy side: How Ontario’s next storm will be harder to handle
From fluff to slush: The inbound Ontario winter storm will bring heavy, wet snow, gusty winds, and a Thursday freeze-up. But there is a forecast uncertainty with our developing Texas low. Get the science behind it
Last weekend’s snowfall was the easy kind––fluffy, low-density, with little wind, making for a manageable cleanup. But this mid-week storm will be anything but easy.
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Timing and impact: The biggest changes
Weekend versus weekday: Saturday’s storm came and went quietly, but this one arrives in the middle of a busy work week.
Rush-hour problems: Snow and a wintry mix arrive Wednesday evening, making for slick commutes.
Thursday-morning freeze: As the low pulls away, temperatures drop, locking in slushy roads as ice, especially on untreated surfaces.
A more potent low: Stronger winds and blowing snow
Unlike last weekend’s weaker system, this storm will track farther north and deepen a little more, leading to:
Stronger wind gusts Wednesday night into Thursday (60 km/h, increasing to 70-90 km/h for some on Thursday). Winds gusts of this intensity have been known to cause power outages.
Blowing snow and reduced visibility in exposed regions.
Icy roads as temperatures plummet post-storm.
The 401 corridor: A wintry mess in the making
Lower snow ratios equals heavy, slushy snowfall due to warmer air being pulled in.
Mixing risk in parts of southwestern Ontario: Potential for rain and freezing rain, especially near Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario.
Temperature swings: Some areas will start as snow, then switch to rain or a mix, and then freeze solid on Thursday.
The worst-case scenario: What if the track shifts?
A farther north track: More mixing and less snow for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).
A farther south track: Colder air stays locked in, meaning heavier snowfall and worsening commutes in the 401 and GTA corridors.
Either way, Thursday’s free-falling temperatures are a major concern.
Weather model chaos: Why confidence is lower
Forecasting this storm isn’t easy because the low-pressure system doesn’t exist, yet.
Normally, meteorologists track a low for days, allowing models to adjust using real-world observations.
This storm’s key energy source is still over the Pacific as of Monday, and will cross northern Mexico on Tuesday, making its evolution trickier to predict.
It doesn’t become a system until early Wednesday, the first time real observations of the system get used in models.
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Expect forecast adjustments in the coming days as models get a better handle on the setup.