Winter storm watches in Florida ahead of once-in-a-generation storm

A major storm could drop significant amounts of snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain across the U.S. Deep South through Tuesday

Winter storm watches are in effect across much of northern Florida as an extremely rare winter storm targets the northern U.S. Gulf Coast.

Some communities could witness the most snow they’ve recorded in living memory, including cities like New Orleans, La., and Mobile, Ala.

Communities in the Deep South largely don't have plows, shovels, or road treatment equipment to deal with any wintry precipitation. Expect widespread flight delays throughout the southern U.S. as a result of this storm, as well as treacherous to near-impossible driving conditions along major interstate highways across the region.

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Major storm brewing

The same surge of Arctic air spilling across Canada this weekend will dive deep into the heart of the U.S. heading into the beginning of this week.

The lobe of the polar vortex responsible for the chill will help kickstart a low-pressure system over central Texas that’ll track east across the northern Gulf Coast through Monday and Tuesday.

Southern US Snowfall Totals

Bitterly cold air to the north and plenty of Gulf moisture from the south will create the perfect setup for a rare winter storm from south-central Texas through the eastern Carolinas, including much of the northern Gulf Coast and sections of northern Florida.

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Small changes in the track of the storm will have a big impact on what type of precipitation falls on communities in the storm's path.

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Measurable amounts of snow and ice pellets are possible across numerous major southern cities, including Houston, Tex.; New Orleans, La.; Mobile, Ala.; Savannah, Ga.; Charleston, S.C.; and Wilmington, N.C.

Southern US Ice Accretion

It’s not just the threat for snow and ice pellets that’s worrying forecasters.

Significant ice accretion from freezing rain is possible across parts of northern Florida, potentially including Pensacola, Tallahassee, and Gainesville. It’s extremely rare for ice or snow to fall in these areas.

“Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous by Tuesday night. The weight of the ice on tree limbs may down power lines and cause power outages. Plan on slippery road conditions,” the NWS said in its winter storm watch for Tallahassee on Sunday.

Historic snowfall totals possible

It’s no surprise that winter weather isn’t a common sight across the U.S. Deep South.

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Gulf Coast Record Snows

The U.S. National Weather Service advised in a winter storm warning for New Orleans that the Interstate 10 corridor could see 10-15 cm (4-6 in.) of snow from this system between Monday night and Tuesday night.

If the forecast verifies, this event could more than double the biggest snowfall ever recorded in the city’s living memory.

New Orleans International Airport has recorded measurable snow only twice since 1990—1.2 cm fell in Dec. 2004, then an even lighter dusting five years later in Dec. 2009. The airport’s largest snowfall was 6.9 cm that fell on Dec. 31, 1963. You’d have to go back to the 1800s to find a bigger storm.

Biggest Gulf Coast Snows

Disruptive snows are uncommon but not unheard of across the Gulf Coast. The most snow observed in modern history in Houston, Tex., was 11 cm back on Feb. 12, 1960. Tallahassee, Fla., recorded 7 cm of snow during an unusual storm on Feb. 12, 1958.

Even folks down in Tampa, Fla., have seen a burst of wintry weather exactly once in the city’s recorded history. A major cold snap that hit the state brought 0.5 cm of snow to Tampa on Jan. 19, 1977—a freak event that sent flurries as far south as the Miami metro area.

Winter storms are a major ordeal in the south

This will be a high-impact event for the southern U.S. Expect treacherous road conditions anywhere expecting wintry precipitation. Flight delays and cancellations are likely throughout the region.

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Drivers here largely aren’t equipped with the skills or experience necessary to handle snow or ice on the roads. Vehicles don’t have winter tires, and people generally have no need to own snow shovels, snow brushes, or even ice scrapers.

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Many municipalities across the Deep South have little to no snow removal or road treatment equipment on hand to deal with light amounts of snow or ice—let alone the amounts that could fall in the coming days.

Trees in northern Florida affected by recent hurricanes may be particularly vulnerable to the weight of any ice accretion. Widespread power outages are possible.

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