Winnipeg's mild December might land in the record books
December is feeling like a second crack at November in southern Manitoba as temperatures remain mild and snow lags far behind normal
This winter is starting on an odd note across much of Manitoba where above-seasonal temperatures and a relative lack of snow are the rule rather than the exception heading into the holidays.
Look no further than Winnipeg for a sign at how strange the atmosphere is acting this month.
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A seasonal daytime high in Winnipeg around the middle of December is about -10°C. The city’s seven-day forecast doesn’t show the daytime temperature dipping that low at all—and barely any colder than that at night.
Just about every day over the next week will come in 5-10 degrees above seasonal in Winnipeg, with our coolest night barely cracking into the negative double digits.
The spell of above-seasonal temperatures on the eastern Prairies leading up to the holidays is the result of persistent ridging over the region, which both leads to warmer-than-normal temperatures while also deflecting major systems away from the region.
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We can see the effect of storms missing southern Manitoba in Winnipeg’s snowfall totals this month. The city has only recorded 2.2 cm of snow this December, which is a far cry from the 23 cm we would typically expect throughout the month.
During a typical December, the capital city would maintain an average snow depth of about 10 cm on the ground, a modest blanket to start the winter. We barely have 3 cm of snow on the ground as of December 14.
The odds aren’t looking good to break out of this pattern anytime soon.
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Long-range forecasts show above-seasonal temperatures locked-in for much of central North America, with warmer-than-normal conditions almost certain across southern Manitoba through the end of the month. This setup would lead to a less-active storm track, as well as fewer opportunities for the cold air necessary to produce lake-effect snow.
It’s worth noting that warmth is relative this time of year, and temperatures running ten degrees above seasonal are still plenty cold enough for jackets and snowfall.
A forecast like this is tough for winter-loving Manitobans, especially with the holidays coming up. Winnipeg has only logged one ‘green Christmas’ in the record books, with no snow on the ground on December 25, 1997.
Can the region hold on to its snow long enough to officially see a white Christmas?
Stay with The Weather Network next week as our team dives into the chances for Christmas snow—or a lack thereof!—here in Manitoba and across Canada.
