Will Toronto's snow drought endure all of November? Time will tell

Toronto is in a snow drought, but could it come to an end soon? In short, probably not, and likely, not even this month.

We're nearing the end of November, but Toronto is still eagerly awaiting its first snowfall event.

Technically, the two centimetres of ice pellets that were recorded on Nov. 8 will mean on paper that Pearson International Airport (YYZ) didn't score a snowless November in Environment Canada's climate record. Is there snow hope on the horizon for the final days of November?

DON'T MISS: Clock ticking towards Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area's first major snowfall

All major computer models indicate a substantial snow void across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) for the final days of November. Head to the snowbelts to see the lake-effect engine attempt to fire up by Thursday evening.


A weak trough on late Sunday once again will likely give a cold rain down along the lake shore with the threat of a wintry mix north of the GTA.

While a snowless November has happened at Pearson International Airport (YYZ) a handful of times, with the most recent occurring in 2012, this is not normal for the month. A normal November at YYZ sees more 7 cm of snowfall.

Thus far, above-normal temperatures and the warm waters of the Great Lakes have forced any system precipitation to fall as rain or ice. And, the lack of cold, Arctic air this month has kept lake-effect engines rather quiet.

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Mid-November has offered more seasonal, with some below-normal temperatures, as shots of colder air make their way across Eastern Canada.

SEE ALSO: Messy low threatens some wintry trouble over parts of Ontario this week

There have been 10 snowless Novembers at YYZ since 1937, with the most recent occurring in November 2012.


We are getting closer to that first snow event, but the long-range patterns are iffy when those snowy ingredients will come together.

Temperatures will be trending to be cooler-than-normal temperatures through the end of November, and into the first few days of December. If a system can't take shape then, a possible mild early and mid-December may stretch the snow drought out beyond November.

Thumbnail courtesy of Lorraine Parow.

With files from Rachel Modestino and Tyler Hamilton, meteorologists at The Weather Network.