Will this chill end a snowless winter across B.C.’s South Coast?

It’s been a decade since we’ve had a snowless winter across the South Coats. Are we destined for a repeat?

Where’s winter on the West Coast?

It’s been a relatively mild season across British Columbia’s South Coast so far, and that’s on top of an exceptionally dry January shaping up throughout the region. Vancouver and Victoria have picked up a whopping 0 cm of snow this winter.

There are signs that things could turn around heading into the beginning of February, though, as a pattern change looks likely to arrive.

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Why the lack of snow so far?

Although there were a few days of marginal snowfall across the South Coast in mid-November, which brought localized totals of a few centimetres, we haven’t seen any measurable snowfall reported since then.

BC Atmospheric Heights January

The driving force is the fact that our pattern has yo-yoed between two extremes. The fall and early winter months featured a strong Pacific jet stream that flooded the region with mild Pacific air—certainly not conducive to low-elevation snow.

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Since Christmas, a prominent series of ridges has dominated the West Coast, choking off the storm track while shunting the season’s coolest air east of the Rockies. As a result, this is going to be one of the driest Januarys on record for the South Coast.

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Change may be on the horizon

The position of our ridge in early February will move farther west than it’s been, placing it over the Gulf of Alaska instead. This will allow colder air to migrate into the region directly from Siberia and Alaska.

BC Atmospheric Heights February

It’s still too early to say just how cold temperatures will get, but readings 5-10 degrees below seasonal would be possible with the current trajectory of the cold air.

What could this entail for our chances at some wintry weather? While it’s still too early for specifics, the arrival of this colder pattern could make conditions favourable for snow to fall at lower elevations across the South Coast as we head into the month of February.

Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on your forecast across British Columbia.

WATCH: This January could be one of the driest months for southern B.C.