Wild ride to the winter finish line in Canada, find out your fate
Canada is in for a bumpy ride over the next few weeks.
Don’t put those shovels away just yet, Canada.
A more classic winter finish is on tap that promises to spill winter weather into March.
Polar vortex
Western Canada's fate is sealed for the rest of February.
Yes, even Vancouver and coastal B.C. will be in a favourable setup to see accumulating snowfall at times. We have high confidence that the Arctic tap will be pointed across the west, the harbinger of below-seasonal weather.
A sudden stratospheric warming event is also underway; that’s when the stratospheric polar vortex is decimated and sends lobes of the polar vortex further south into the mid-latitudes – and that could take place over the next few weeks.
This forecast displacement of the polar vortex means we have to be on guard for significant cold shots well into March.
Ridge on guard
A lot is hinging on the ridge of high pressure across the southeast U.S., which has been pretty overzealous throughout most of the winter. So naturally, that ridge will battle it out with the chilly air to the north.
This ridge has been quite overprotective; consequently, it is a pretty sizable reason why it’s been so warm across the east.
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This signal over the next few weeks gives us high confidence for above-normal precipitation through the heart of the Great Lakes, spilling across Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
Yes, this means Atlantic Canada will finally participate in some sustained winter weather.
March in like a…
Since we’ve coasted through the majority of February with relative ease, it’s not the time to get complacent. It’s possible that March out-snows February for some, giving a lot of Canadians a taste of more traditionally turbulent weather.
It’s quite likely March in central and eastern Canada is more unsettled with above-normal precipitation, with cold air actively trying to suppress the southeast ridge.
Spring teaser
Odds are increasing on a sluggish start to spring across Canada. As you know, winter has had major commitment issues, but spring will attempt to make up for a little lost time.
We’ll have much more to say about this with our 2023 Spring Forecast, debuting on March 1st.