Dreaming of a white Christmas? Region-by-region breakdown, here

Some parts of the country that normally miss out have a really good chance this year, while for others, it's looking like a tantalizing near-miss.

Despite our wintry reputation, millions of Canadians normally have only a scant chance of a white Christmas each year. But this year, the B.C. South Coast, which normally features the lowest chance in Canada, has a pretty rosy outlook, while for the rest of the country, the probability varies quite widely, from a virtual guarantee to a near-miss. For a closer analysis, see below.


With a frigid pattern settled in over western Canada, some B.C. cities may be in line for one of the coldest Christmases on record, including Vancouver.

We're watching the track of a system that's expected to bring a mix of rain and wet snow all the day down to sea level along the South Coast during Christmas Eve, changing to snow before ending on Christmas. Some will be looking at several centimetres on the ground and some flakes still in the air, even Vancouver, which normally only averages a mere 11 per cent probability of a white Christmas.

The province's chances for a white Christmas jump with elevation and distance from the coast, but you won't have to travel far.


If there's any region of Canada that's all but guaranteed a white Christmas, it's the Prairie provinces this year.

Some parts of the country can see some shots of snow that raise hopes in the leadup to the day, only for a rise in temperatures or a rainy system to melt it all away, but that's definitely not in the cards here. An extremely cold air mass is tightening its grip on the region, with no chance of any melting. Even the more southern reaches of Alberta and Saskatchewan, where snow cover is the more sparse, look to get a top-up from a passing system by the 25th.

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West Christmas


After a warmer-than-normal leadup to the start of winter, southern Ontario has finally seen some cold temperatures and snow, with a quick clipper bringing another dash Thursday.

We're looking at a white Christmas Eve for much of the southwest and the GTA, but a system moving in overnight, with a surge of warm temperatures and some showers, will wipe out most of the snow by the morning. For areas further north, as well as eastern Ontario, however, your white Christmas dreams will endure.

You'll also have a good shot at a perfect Christmas in Quebec, including Montreal, which has some snow in the forecast from a frontal system moving in during Christmas Day.

East White Christmas


The white Christmas chances in Atlantic Canada vary widely across the region.

With some system snow on Christmas Day, parts of Newfoundland have an ideal white Christmas setup, but across the gulf, it's a much more mixed bag. It's simply too mild for snow for most of Nova Scotia, but the odds increase gradually as one heads further north into northern New Brunswick and western Prince Edward Island.

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