Thunderstorm threat builds with rising temperatures in parts of Ontario
Warm air tucked away in southwestern Ontario could give rise to thunderstorms this weekend
From an ice storm to thunderstorms, Ontario’s got it all this weekend. Folks across the southwestern corner of the province will have to monitor the potential for thunderstorms this weekend—some of which could grow severe.
This weekend’s thunderstorm risk arrives courtesy of the same system expected to produce a long-duration ice storm up toward cottage country and eastern Ontario.
We’ll see an exceptionally sharp temperature gradient build across the region as this setup settles into place on Saturday and Sunday.
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Severe thunderstorms possible Sunday evening
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While eastern Ontario and cottage country deal with a formidable freezing rain event, folks in southwestern Ontario will shed their coats and watch the skies for potential thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain exceptionally mild in the southwest, with a daytime high of 22°C in Windsor contrasting with an expected high of just 2°C up the road in Toronto.
This expansive warmth will set the stage for widespread severe thunderstorms south of the border heading into Sunday. The U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued an enhanced risk for severe weather for a large portion of the country, which is a level three on the five-category scale measuring the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Forecasters will watch a potential squall line moving through Michigan toward southwestern Ontario on Sunday evening.
Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and small hail are possible from Windsor to the Bruce Peninsula as the storms track east late into the evening.
There’s still some uncertainty regarding this severe thunderstorm threat given that they’ll happen at night and the Great Lakes themselves could serve to stabilize the atmosphere. Chatham-Kent, Sarnia-Petrolia, and Windsor-Leamington have the highest chance to see stronger storms, though.
