Warmth stubbornly holds on across Ontario to end October
Some areas are looking at 20-degree temperatures during the final days of the month
Southern Ontario will have to hand the keys over to winter eventually.
But warm-weather lovers can rejoice in the fact that such a flip won’t happen this week.
An above-seasonal pattern will dominate the eastern half of North America through the final week of October, sending temperatures toward the 20-degree mark for some in southern Ontario.
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It’s not too unusual to experience temperatures at or above 20°C this late in the season. We’re closing in on the average date of the last 20°C reading in Toronto, Ottawa, and Windsor. But conditions in the 20s can linger well into November.
A warm pattern in 2020 stands out in particular, though Toronto did see shovellable snow just two weeks after that season’s final 20°C.
Exceptional warmth can happen with the right setup in place. Sarnia hit 26.7°C on Nov. 1, 1950, while Hamilton has hit 26°C in November three times since 1950.
A ridge of high pressure dominating the region will keep conditions on the warmer side of seasonal through the week ahead.
Temperatures will peak by Thursday with daytime highs reaching 20°C from Windsor to Toronto, with readings in the mid-teens expected toward Ottawa. Unseasonable warmth will extend into northern Ontario, as well, with a high of 11°C expected in both Timmins and Thunder Bay.
This week may not feature our last opportunity to hit 20 degrees this season. Toronto has higher-than-normal odds of hitting that rounded reading as we enter November.
Early signs point toward a strong southerly flow pushing into southern Ontario during the opening days of the month; with the help of a nearby low-pressure system, warm air could send temperatures into the 20s once again.