Tropics are waking up with the first disturbance of 2024

The National Hurricane Center issued the first special tropical outlook of the 2024 hurricane season early Thursday morning.

A small but persistent system over the Atlantic caught the eyes of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), prompting the first special tropical outlook of the 2024 season.

The low had only been given a 10 per cent chance for formation, and was expected to move into a less favourable environment in the next 24 - 48 hours.

Although formation chances are next to nothing, it does paint a picture of what may be on the way for the year - seems early, doesn’t it?

Tropical Activity April 25 2024

One of the factors that could be contributing to this early formation is the record warm ocean waters. The Main Development Region (MDR) has been running warmer than normal for months. The Atlantic Ocean water temperatures are well ahead of schedule, similar to what we might record in June.

The season begins on June 1, could we see an early storm develop? It's possible.

Sea Surface temperatures April 2024

SEE ALSO: La Niña will make a comeback this summer as El Niño finally fades

According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is expected to gradually decrease and become neutral in the upcoming months, creating opportunities for favourable development environments by weakening shear over the Atlantic.

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With the key pieces timed right, an early start to the hurricane season is not unfathomable. An active season at that even more so.

All eyes will be on the shift to La Niña sometime in the summer, which would present even more chances for ideal hurricane formation conditions.

Keep in mind, Colorado State University is predicting a very active season ahead, it may soon be time to pay attention.

CSU Hurricane Predictions

With files from Kayla Christoffer.