Tornado, large hail threat: Sask., Man., faces ideal, severe storm setup
A multi-day, severe storm threat sets up across the eastern Prairies this weekend, with Saturday including the possibility of tornadoes for parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Stay alert for severe weather watches and warnings on the Prairies this weekend and beyond as a multi-day storm setup develops across parts of the region.
One or two tornadoes are possible in Saturday’s severe thunderstorms. We’ll see the storm threat renew for many of the same areas on Sunday, but with no tornadic risk.
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Saturday storm threat may include tornado potential
A complex atmospheric setup pushing over the southern Prairies to kick off the weekend may support the development of severe thunderstorms in southern Saskatchewan.
Moisture flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico, a low-pressure system stateside, and rising instability should create a favourable environment for powerful thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
Saturday’s most intense storms may rotate, making them capable of producing large hail, strong wind gusts, and possibly one or two tornadoes.
A cap in the atmosphere may serve as a roadblock to Saturday’s storms. Capping occurs when a temperature inversion aloft prevents air from rising freely, acting like a lid that can stifle storm formation.
The severity of Saturday’s storms will depend on whether or not they can break through the cap and take full advantage of the available instability.
Additional severe weather expected Sunday and Monday
Unsettled conditions lingering over the centre of the country will renew the threat for severe thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday.
Saturday night’s storms in Saskatchewan could result in an early wake-up call for Winnipeg on Sunday morning as the line tries to survive through the night.
Significant instability on Sunday afternoon will spark widespread scattered storms over southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with the threat growing into northwestern Ontario later in the afternoon.
We’ll see the risk for severe weather shift into northwestern Ontario on Monday.
There’s still some uncertainty surrounding the location of the most favourable environment for severe weather. A few long-range models suggest extreme amounts of thunderstorm energy alongside other ingredients necessary for impactful severe weather.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on conditions across the region.