Tornadic threat: The eastern Prairies see a conducive, severe storm setup
Ingredients are coming together for a severe-weather event centred in southeastern Saskatchewan and western-southwestern Manitoba on Saturday, including the chance of supercells
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southeastern Prairies on Saturday as a dynamic setup swings across the region.
The main hazards will be large hail and strong wind gusts, but some areas could see supercells, so the threat of tornadoes can't be ruled out, as thunderstorms bubble up across the region
Severe weather threat builds on Saturday
Forecasters are closely monitoring a very favourable setup for severe thunderstorms across southern portions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba during the day Saturday.
This environment includes high storm energy, ample moisture, strong winds aloft, and a trigger to kick off the development of thunderstorms.
A surface low enters the region around 6 p.m.to 7 p.m. while a trough organizes in Montana, acting as triggers for severe thunderstorm development.
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Storms that bubble up on Saturday will encounter favourable dynamics to quickly turn severe, potentially growing into supercells capable of producing large hail and strong, potentially damaging, wind gusts. A threat for tornadoes can’t be ruled out at this time.
By the late afternoon, thunderstorms trigger and may initially become supercells.
Steep lapse rates support very large hail (ranging between ping pong ball- to tennis ball-sized), along with strong winds.
Residents in impacted areas are urged to keep cell phones charged ahead of the storm in case of any power disruptions or outages to receive weather alerts (click here to see how to turn on alert notifications from The Weather Network app).
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Difference between a tornado watch and warning. (The Weather Network)
The highest impacts are expected in south-central and southeastern Saskatchewan, including Regina and surrounding communities.
Training storms along the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border are high highly possible through Saturday evening, elevating the flooding threat.
The greatest amount of rainfall accumulation through the weekend is across southeastern Saskatchewan and western Manitoba where the majority of rainfall is along the shorelines of Lake Winnipeg, Cedar Lake and Lake Winnipegosis (north of Dauphin).
WATCH:Strong storms in Sask. and Manitoba could be damaging Saturday
Sunday sees similar severe storm threat
A nocturnal storm risk from Saturday night into Sunday cannot be ruled out.
The risk continues into Sunday afternoon, shifting slightly eastward.
The risk of severe storms, including supercells, will be again focused on southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba.
Take some time to ensure you have emergency supplies and a plan in place in case severe weather threatens your location.
For tips on what to do in case a tornado warning is issued, click here.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on conditions across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.