Tornado watch issued in Manitoba, NW Ontario, amid severe storm risk
Southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario are in line for another round of severe storms Monday, with an increased chance of tornadoes
A volatile storm system is once again threatening southern Manitoba today, with forecasters warning that the risk of tornadoes is greater than during Sunday's round of severe weather.
A tornado watch was issued for parts of northwestern Ontario and southern Manitoba Monday afternoon, with Environment Canada and Climate Change (ECCC) cautioning for the potential development of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Strong winds, large hail and heavy rain are also possible in the regions located within the watch.
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Peak risk expected late afternoon into evening
The most active period is projected from 4 p.m. CT and onwards, when storms may intensify and rotate.
A strengthening jet stream is also expected to provide additional energy to developing thunderstorms throughout the afternoon and evening.
Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are all a possibility, but the main concern is tornado development, particularly in extreme southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
While forecasters are confident that multiple thunderstorms will form, they warn that exact storm tracks and timing are unknown, determining which communities will suffer the most damage.
Communities along Highway 1 remain in the highest risk zone for supercells, though Winnipeg may see severe storms later in the day as conditions improve for rapid storm development.
The tornado risk in Manitoba is low, with a higher chance in northwestern Ontario along the warm front and “triple point."
Storm, tornadic threat continues Monday overnight in northwestern Ontario
Storms in northwestern Ontario will organize into a linear structure after sunset, risking large hail, embedded tornadoes and strong to damaging wind gusts near 110 km/h.
Models are indicating a possible MCS (mesoscale convective system) may impact northwestern Ontario Monday night.
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With ample overnight heat and thunderstorm fuel available, severe thunderstorms are likely to persist overnight into early Tuesday.
Storms will track east into northeastern Ontario early Tuesday morning.
Residents should remain weather-aware Monday into Tuesday, and have a plan to take cover if/when severe weather strikes.
Following a confirmed tornado on Sunday, forecasters believe Monday's setup could be even more favourable for severe and potentially tornado-like storms, depending on how the system evolves.
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