Storm threat grows in southern Manitoba, NW Ont., after confirmed tornado Sunday
Southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario are in line for another round of severe storms Monday, with an increased chance of tornadoes
A volatile storm system is once again threatening southern Manitoba today, with forecasters warning that the risk of tornadoes is greater than during Sunday's round of severe weather.
The concern comes after a confirmed tornado in the region the day before and the same system is continuing to move in warm, unstable air. A strengthening jet stream is also expected to provide additional energy to developing thunderstorms throughout the afternoon.
A tornado watch was issued for parts of northwestern Ontario Monday afternoon, with Environment Canada and Climate Change (ECCC) cautioning for the potential development of tornadoes this afternoon and evening. Strong winds, large hail and heavy rain are also possible in the regions located within the watch.
Communities along and south of Highway 1 remain in the highest risk zone, though Winnipeg may see severe storms later in the day as conditions improve for rapid storm development.
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Peak risk expected late afternoon into evening
The most active period is projected between 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. CT, when storms may intensify and rotate.
Large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are all a possibility, but the main concern is tornado development, particularly in extreme southern Manitoba near the Ontario border.
While forecasters are confident that multiple thunderstorms will form, they warn that exact storm tracks and timing are unknown, determining which communities will suffer the most damage.
Storm threat continues into northwestern Ontario
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The system is expected to move east into northwestern Ontario Monday night, bringing more severe weather into the evening hours.
Storms may continue to rotate between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. CT, particularly south of Highway 11, with some risk extending as far as Highway 17 along Lake Superior's western edge.
"Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon or this evening," ECCC said in a tornado watch issued for parts of northwestern Ontario Monday afternoon. "Wind and hail are the main threats, however tornadoes are possible. There is also a risk of local rainfall of 50 to 100 mm if multiple storms move over the same area."
Residents should remain weather-aware Monday into Tuesday, and have a plan to take cover if/when severe weather strikes.
Following a confirmed tornado on Sunday, forecasters believe Monday's setup could be even more favourable for severe and potentially tornado-like storms, depending on how the system evolves.
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