Tornado, hail risk with severe weather chance on the eastern Prairies Tuesday
A potent weather system is set to bring an end to the heat on the eastern Prairies but at a stormy cost. A higher potential for severe weather exists on Tuesday in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, including gusty winds, downpours and hail, as well as a tornado or two in the latter province
The eastern Prairies are under a multi-day thunderstorm threat supported by an upper-level low, a surface low, and lingering heat.
The setup will sustain storm potential again on Tuesday. That includes the chance of large hail, strong winds, heavy downpours, and even a tornado chance as supercells will be possible.
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Be sure to stay alert on Tuesday to the changing conditions and stay updated on any weather warnings in your area.
Weather Highlights:
Thunderstorms are expected across the eastern Prairies this week, driven by lingering heat
Stronger storms are likely in southern Manitoba, including Brandon and Winnipeg, Tuesday, with potential for gusty winds, hail, and a tornado
Stronger storms, potential supercells on Tuesday
A very unstable atmosphere is expected Tuesday in southern Manitoba. A persistent, southerly wind moves heat and moisture into the region, fuelling the storm threat.
A short-wave trough is expected to swing across southern Manitoba and North Dakoda, triggering likely severe thunderstorms.
Wind shear and deep lapse rates present supports supercell development by the afternoon.
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Large hail, toonie-sized or larger, is the main threat, but we can't rule out one or two tornadoes. Strong, outflow wind gusts from the thunderstorms are expected.
Thunderstorms will begin in the southwest around 4 p.m. local time, tracking north and east through the evening.
By the evening the supercells are expected to cluster. Widespread, severe risks are expected from the Interlake region to the international border, lasting into the overnight hours.
Tuesday's storms will also signal the end of the recent period of intense heat.
Residents in affected areas should closely monitor weather updates and remain prepared for rapidly changing conditions.