Southern Ontario to see hazardous travel with 15-35 cm of snow from Texas low
Along with gusty winds, a winter storm is expected to dump 15-35 cm of snow on southern and eastern Ontario through Thursday, resulting in hazardous travel conditions and potential power outages
All eyes are on a looming winter storm that will likely result in hazardous travel with cancellations or closures across southern Ontario through Thursday morning.
Computer models have trended slightly southward across Ontario, putting southern and northeastern sections of the province in line for 15-35 cm of snow. A bevy of alerts have been issued, including a snowfall warning for the city of Toronto and other locales, along with winter storm warnings and special weather statements.
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It will primarily be a snowstorm, but a changeover to ice pellets and freezing rain is expected near Lake Erie, with the risk for significant ice accretion possible.
Poor visibility and slippery roads will make for some very difficult travel conditions, and possible disruptions to power. The timing of this mid-week system will likely also make it a much harder one to handle.
As always, be sure to keep up-to-date on your local weather alerts, and always check the highway conditions before heading out.
Storm timing breakdown
A Texas low is set to develop early Wednesday, gradually strengthening as it moves up the Mississippi Valley.
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Wednesday morning: Localized lake-effect snow will develop over western Lake Ontario, impacting areas from Oakville to Hamilton.
Wednesday afternoon: Light snow will begin across southwestern Ontario, with the leading edge pushing into the Toronto area area by the start of the afternoon rush-hour traffic.
Wednesday evening: Snowfall rates will intensify across southern Ontario, with freezing precipitation likely along the Lake Erie shorelines. Wind gusts will pick up to 60 km/h. Snow will begin in Ottawa.
Wednesday night: The heaviest snowfall rates are expected from Windsor to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), while rainfall and winds move into in to the shores of Lake Erie and Niagara.
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Thursday morning: Milder air and rain nudges into and along Lake Erie to the Niagara Peninsula, possibly reaching the shorelines of the GTA, as well. Precipitation tapers from west to east, easing by late morning in the GTA.
Temperatures will fall steadily throughout the day, turning colder and much windier. Widespread gusts between 50-70 km/h are expected, which could blow around the freshly fallen snow.
Also during the morning, the heaviest snow is expected for Ottawa and eastern Ontario.
Thursday afternoon: Conditions gradually start to improve, and snowfall slowly eases across eastern Ontario.
The combination of gusty winds, wet snow, and icy conditions could result in power outages throughout the day.
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Significant snowfall totals
A widespread, heavy swath of snow is forecast north of the low, with 25-35 cm for cottage country and eastern Ontario, including Ottawa. Snowfall rates of 5 cm per hour could impact areas to the north.
Meanwhile, 20-30 cm of snow is expected north of the GTA, with 15-20 cm in the city of Toronto.
Drivers are urged to consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.
Another snowstorm for Family Day weekend
Fair weather is likely on Friday, but another winter storm is expected to impact the region on the weekend as a Colorado low is expected to merge with a developing low over the lower Mississippi Valley, and then track north to Pennsylvania, New England and into Atlantic Canada. It is still early to have confidence in the storm track and impacts, but widespread totals of 10-20+cm are expected.
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Frigid conditions are likely for Family Day, with high temperatures in the negative teens. Bands of lake-effect snow are expected early next week, and then the risk for another significant system or two later in the week.
The next two weeks could really shape how this winter is remembered across the region. Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate through the end of February and into March.
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