Significant U.S. severe storms target 130 million, is Canada next?
A multi-day severe weather event will unfold south of the border. Some impacts may slip into Ontario this weekend
The next few days could prove dangerous south of the border as a multi-day severe weather outbreak is likely to unfold across some densely populated areas.
More than 130 million people are at risk for severe weather heading into this weekend. Significant damaging wind gusts, intense tornadoes, and large hail are all possible.
Forecasters will also monitor the potential for some non-severe thunderstorms to creep into northwestern Ontario on Friday evening, along with the potential for flooding and rumbles of thunder across southern Ontario on Sunday.
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Widespread damaging winds on Friday
A powerful Colorado low developing on Friday will give rise to widespread thunderstorm activity throughout the southern and central U.S.
The storm risk will unfold in two distinct rounds, the first arriving on Friday and the second developing through the day Saturday.
The year’s first moderate risk for severe thunderstorms—a four out of five on the categorical scale used by the U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC)—is in effect for the region, including the cities of St. Louis and Springfield, Illinois.
An intense squall line could develop across the region, packing significant wind gusts of 100-110+ km/h. These wind gusts could lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. Embedded tornadoes are also possible.
These storms will begin in the late afternoon hours and continue pushing east overnight into early Saturday morning.
Significant tornadoes possible Saturday
We’ll see the risk for significant severe weather shift a bit farther south and east to start the weekend, with another level four moderate risk in effect across the Deep South on Saturday.
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Storms will start in the southern U.S. and Midwest during the late morning hours, again pushing east as the day wears on.
All hazards will be possible, including tornadoes, damaging winds, and hailstones the size of golf balls or larger.
Intense, long-track tornadoes are possible throughout portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee. This includes the cities of New Orleans, Mobile, Birmingham, and Atlanta.
Historically, this is right around where you would expect tornado activity to ramp up as spring takes hold across North America.
Storm tracks into Ontario with thunder risk
Our low-pressure system will track into northwestern Ontario late Friday, potentially bringing the risk for some non-severe thunderstorms as the system moves into the region.
Focus will turn toward southern Ontario looking ahead to this weekend.
While it’s likely that this weekend will see a risk for embedded thunder across southern Ontario, it’s too soon to say with certainty if the thunderstorms will be severe and what their impacts could be.
It’s safe to say that Sunday’s storms will pack elevated moisture, raising a risk for flooding across the region. We’ll continue to update the forecast over the next couple of days.