Severe storm, isolated tornado risk in Ontario: Will smoke play a role?
Wildfire smoke meets severe thunderstorm risk in southern Ontario this weekend
A low pressure system is set to move into southern Ontario Friday night through Saturday, bringing showers, nocturnal thunderstorms, and a risk for severe storms on Saturday.
While the atmospheric conditions suggest the potential for severe weather, there is significant uncertainty about whether storms will reach severe levels. This uncertainty largely stems from the lingering thick smoke in the region, which has persisted throughout the week and is expected to continue into Saturday. Smoke often suppresses the development of severe thunderstorms.
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Residents are advised to stay alert and monitor conditions and alerts through the weekend.
Severe thunderstorm risk creeps into southern Ontario Friday night
Friday night, a warm front will lift into the region, triggering thunderstorms in the evening and overnight.
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and southwestern Ontario will likely see mostly non-severe storms, while central Ontario and cottage country could face heavy rain and localized flooding into Saturday morning.
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Risk for heavy rain, hail, and possible tornado Saturday, but smoke will be a factor
Dry periods are expected Saturday morning across the GTA and southwest as the warm front moves into southern Quebec. However, as a cold front approaches in the afternoon, the risk for severe thunderstorms will increase.
A line of thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the cold front Saturday afternoon and track southward, with some storms potentially becoming severe. These storms could produce brief rotation, raising the risk of isolated tornadoes, along with large hail, strong wind gusts, heavy rain, and localized flooding.
Areas such as Ottawa, Kingston, Belleville, London, and the Niagara Peninsula could experience some of the strongest impacts.
Smoke can suppress severe storm development, but models still indicate the potential for such storms, meaning the risk cannot be ruled out.
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Residents should remain aware of the uncertainty and be prepared for severe weather.