Rain, storms arrive ahead of potential record warm Halloween in southern Ontario
Temperatures soar across much of Ontario this week, but at the cost of some wet and windy weather. Computer models still suggest some poorly timed rain showers for Halloween on Thursday
These last few days of October will be feeling like anything but, with new record warm temperatures on the line as we approach Halloween on Thursday. Daytime highs will soar into the 20s for both Wednesday and Thursday, giving more of a summer-time feel rather than the heart of autumn.
While you likely won't find many trick-or-treaters complaining about the warmth, it'll be the unsettled weather that could play some tricks on last minute costume preparations.
Rounds of rain will push through the region starting Tuesday, with the chance for some isolated thunderstorms, as well. A widespread 10-20 mm of rain is expected, with heavier amounts up to 50 mm forecast for sections of northern Ontario.
The warmth won't last too long, either, with a big change on the way to start out the month of November. An active and changeable pattern is expected for next week.
Temperatures soar, but with some wet and unsettled weather included
An upper ridge centred over the southeastern U.S. will send the warmth surging as far north as the shores of James Bay and western Quebec in time for Halloween on Thursday.
Strong southerly winds will push daytime highs into the low 20s for much of southern Ontario over the next several days, possibly breaking new records along the way. In fact, by midweek, nighttime lows will actually be as warm as what you'd feel throughout July!
The surge of warmth also comes at the cost of some unsettled weather, however, with two episodes of rain pushing through.
Early morning thunderstorms bubbled up across parts of southwestern Ontario on Tuesday, with the unstable weather also extending up to sections of the northeast. The rain will pick up across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) into Tuesday afternoon, with the chance for brief, but heavy bursts of rain at times throughout the day.
Wednesday will feature mostly sunny and warm conditions ahead of the second, and poorly timed, round of rain for Halloween.
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Temperatures will soar into the 20s on Thursday, challenging records set on Oct. 31. In Toronto, a high of 22°C is forecast, with the record high for that day currently sitting at 22.8°C from 1971.
While Halloween will be warm and windy, with gusts between 40-70 km/h, trick-or-treaters may need a rain-proof costume, as showers are likely late afternoon to early evening on Thursday.
With both rain events combined, a general swath of 10-20 mm of rain is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with locally heavier amounts up to 50 mm possible across parts of the north.
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Flakes may fly across northern Ontario on Halloween
Meanwhile, a swath of snow threatens areas across northeastern Ontario. Highway 101, from Wawa to Timmins, looks to be the dividing line for precipitation types, with rain to the south and snow to the north.
The Thunder Bay area could see some wet snow through the day on Thursday, possibly lasting into the evening, giving a chilly and wintry spin on trick-or-treat times.
By Friday, it's back to reality for everyone, with much more seasonal temperatures moving in behind the front. Daytime highs will remain in the single-digits to round out the week.
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Changeable temperatures are expected during early November, though should tip to the warm side of seasonal. An active pattern is likely for next week, as a couple of low pressure systems will track north and west of the region. Windy conditions and mild temperatures will arrive ahead of the cold fronts, followed by a period of showers, and then brief shots of cooler, more seasonal temperatures.
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