Prepare for 20-30+ cm of snow in major holiday weekend storm
Another widespread, hefty snowfall looms for southern and eastern Ontario this weekend. Prepare for major travel disruptions and cancellations
We’re running out of room for all the snow across southern Ontario as the region’s third major winter storm in eight days looms over the province’s long holiday weekend.
While there is still some uncertainty in the track of the storm and overall snow totals, between 15-30+ cm is currently on the table.
Confidence is high in another major snowfall event for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and all of southern Ontario. This snowfall event will come in two parts, with the greatest impacts expected on Sunday.
As always, have a plan in place, and be sure to keep up-to-date on your local weather alerts. Always check the highway conditions before heading out.
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Saturday: Snow spreads into southern Ontario through the morning hours
The first round of snow on Saturday will serve as an appetizer to the main course arriving overnight into Sunday.
A disturbance pushing across the Great Lakes will spread snow across much of Ontario starting Saturday morning, with snowfall continuing for much of the day across central and southern Ontario. Locally breezy conditions will accompany the snowfall at times on Saturday.
Saturday’s snowfall will lighten through the evening—but don’t let your guard down yet. We’ll see average totals of 5-10 cm from Saturday’s even for the GTA and southwestern Ontario, with less than 5 cm on average for eastern Ontario. The rest is coming Sunday.
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A stronger low-pressure system will develop to the west and tap into Gulf moisture as it pushes into the region. This system’s formation will increase snowfall rates, snow totals, and wind gusts heading into Sunday across the region.
WATCH: What to expect with this long weekend snowstorm
Sunday: Significant snow totals pile up, travel could be treacherous
This strengthening low-pressure system south of the Great Lakes will begin to feed more significant snowfall overnight Saturday and into Sunday.
While the track of the low and how quickly it strengthens are still uncertain, similar to the recent mid-week storm, an icy mix could spread over communities along the northern shores of Lake Erie and into the Niagara region. If the low stays farther south, however, precipitation could remain all snow for these areas.
Travel will be even more treacherous—with roads downright dangerous to navigate—as intensifying snowfall rates of 2-3 cm/h and wind gusts of 40-60 km/h buffet the region into the day. It’s highly advised to avoid any unnecessary travel across much of southern and eastern Ontario on Sunday.
Flight delays, cancellations, and closures can be anticipated.
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Brace for 20-30 cm of snow
The system is forecast to track east and depart the area Sunday evening, leaving a hefty swath of snow in its wake.
The exact track of the low will determine where the heaviest snows accumulate. The storm hasn’t formed yet, and isn’t forecast to form until Saturday, so there remains some uncertainty regarding the potential for the highest snow totals.
It appears likely that much of the GTA, as well as most of southern and eastern Ontario, should prepare for another round of 15-30+ cm of snow into Monday.
We’ve seen 94 cm of snow at Toronto-Pearson so far this season. This weekend’s winter storm will likely push Toronto above the seasonal average of 109.7 cm.
Frigid air, and dangerous snow squalls hit for the holiday Monday
A spell of frigid Arctic air will spread across the region as our weekend storm departs.
Daytime temperatures will remain in the minus teens with blustery northwest winds causing extensive blowing and drifting snow and whiteouts, especially in open areas north of the GTA where bands of lake-effect snow squalls are also likely.
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The wind chill will be in the -20s, and could reach -30 well northwest of the GTA on Monday.
Frigid conditions are forecast for most of next week, as well, with the pattern slightly relaxing during the final week of February. Still, no consistent milder weather is in sight.
Stay with The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates on this developing storm.