Ontario's 20-degree rumour: Fact, fiction, or something in between?
Rumours have been circulating online about 20°C days coming back to Ontario in the next week. Are these rumours true? Let's discuss.
Over the past week, rumours of forecast temperatures reaching 20°C have been circulating on social media and popular blogs, but unlike most viral forecasts, this one isn’t built on entirely pure fantasy.
It’s true: a pattern that supports unseasonal warmth is going to set up over southern Ontario, with true spring-like air lurking just to our south. These crude long-range temperature models could sniff out the above-seasonal trend, but will fail at predicting the precise maximum temperatures, which are highly dependent on wind direction.
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So, will someone in Ontario hit 20°C over the next week? Very likely. The greatest odds reside in the traditional hot spots; think Windsor, London, even Hamilton Mountain and other pockets of extreme southwestern Ontario, where elevation and distance from the lake give a huge temperature advantage.
Could this happen on multiple days? It could! The warmth begins spilling in from the United States as early as Friday across extreme southwestern Ontario, with a couple of additional days of highly unseasonal warmth possible early next week.
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The problem is that not everyone will feel the warmth at once. A chilly east (or south) wind off of Lake Ontario could squash any prospective boost in temperatures. The lake temperatures are sitting just a hair above freezing, so Toronto’s warmth depends entirely on whether a low-pressure system can lift far enough north to flip winds to a southwesterly direction.
Models right now are wildly disagreeing on the prospective low's position and intensity. That's why, when you check your Weather Network app, you’re getting a more conservative blend of model solutions. If the timing and wind direction pan out, the Greater Toronto Area could see temperatures spill into the upper teens. It’s far from a guarantee, but the odds increase the further you reside from the shoreline.
In closing, 20°C is on the table this March, but not for everyone.