Ontario severe storm risk Saturday carries uncertainty
Beware a risk for severe thunderstorms throughout southern Ontario into your day on Saturday
An active system pushing across the Great Lakes could give rise to widespread thunderstorms on Saturday, some of which could easily turn severe.
However, several competing factors are throwing a wrench in the forecast. Rain-cooled air and wildfire smoke are leading to greater uncertainty than normal surrounding the extent and intensity of Saturday’s storm threat. With the possibility of frequent lightning and even a tornado.
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We’ll see the threat for severe weather ramp up as a cold front approaches the region, with an extensive line of thunderstorms expected to track southward during the afternoon hours.
Strong wind gusts, large hail, and localized flooding will pose a significant threat to any communities affected by the strongest storms. Embedded rotation may produce a brief tornado threat, especially as the line approaches a lake breeze coming off Lake Erie and eastern Lake Ontario shorelines.
The afternoon already started off strong with rare tornado warnings being issued across parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), including Mississauga, Brampton, and Oakville.
Areas also on the lookout for severe weather include Prince Edward County from Cobourg to Kingston and St. Mary’s to Lake Erie.
The potential for widespread severe storms exists from London to Cornwall with high shear, helicity and cape. However, two factors are introducing uncertainty into the forecast.
The presence of thick wildfire smoke will linger into Saturday. Smoke tends to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.
Stable air resulting from rainfall overnight Friday into Saturday morning may join with the smoke to hamper the severity of storms in eastern Ontario east of the Kawarthas.
However, given that models are suggesting this severe storm potential, it cannot be ruled out. Folks throughout the region should remain aware of the risk for severe storms and stay on guard should threatening weather approach the area.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on conditions across Ontario.