Impactful ice storm in Ontario will pose major weekend travel, power issues
Not one, but two potent spring storms will roll through Ontario this weekend, bringing a swath of long-duration ice accumulation and more than 40 cm of snow for some areas. Significant travel impacts and power outages are likely
Friday morning and afternoon may be the only good times to get things done in parts of Ontario for the next two days, whether it's travelling, outdoor activities or charging your devices, ahead of a potent storm that threatens a long-lasting ice storm for the weekend for some and a swath of heavy snow for others.
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A bevy of wintry alerts span across Ontario, from snowfall to freezing warnings and special weather statements to winter weather travel advisories. Whether you are in the freezing rain or heavy snowfall at-risk area, consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.
Significant ice buildup in those affected hardest by the freezing rain will likely lead to some major impacts as roadways become dangerously slippery and power lines become bogged down by the heavy ice. Folks should expect significant impacts to travel over the weekend, and anyone in the region should prepare for localized power outages.
Be sure to check highway conditions and local weather alerts before heading out if necessary.
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Round 1 arrives Friday evening into Saturday
A sharp contrast between warm air to the south and cold air to the north will generate the whole spectrum of wintry weather across Ontario this weekend. Precipitation will push into the southern half of the province through the latter half of the day Friday.
SNOW: By Friday evening, we’ll see snow in northeastern Ontario push along the Ottawa Valley toward the National Capital Region—and then on toward Montreal. These areas could see 10-20 cm of snow through Saturday.
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ICE: Freezing rain will develop east of Georgian Bay on Friday evening, covering communities north of Parry Sound to Barrie and Orillia, then east toward Bancroft, Peterborough, and Kingston. It’s possible that parts of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) could see a brief period of freezing rain Friday night and Saturday morning.
Ice accretion could reach 15-20 mm (1.5-2 cm) in the hardest-hit areas. Beware extremely slick steps, sidewalks, driveways, and roads during and after freezing rain. This much ice buildup could lead to tree damage and downed power lines, potentially leading to long-lasting power outages across the affected areas.
The northern extent of the warmth has retreated in the latest models, potentially leaving northern and eastern parts of the GTA below freezing through Saturday afternoon.
RAIN: We’ll see rain develop Friday afternoon across southwestern Ontario, including communities from Toronto down toward Windsor.
Freezing drizzle risk on Saturday
The threat for icing won’t diminish once the first round of precipitation wanes on Saturday.
It’s possible that freezing drizzle could fall on Saturday across the same locations that saw freezing rain overnight, which can slowly add more ice onto what has already accumulated.
Our next round of significant precipitation will follow the freezing drizzle threat by Saturday night.
Freezing drizzle will become an concern Saturday night for the GTA, extending east to Kitchener during the transition to the second low.
Round 2 arrives with a Colorado low
A Colorado low is expected to track into Ontario along the same boundary that brought the first wave of wintry precipitation to the region.
Luckily, this boundary will eventually push north through the day on Sunday, allowing temperatures to rise and the threat for snow and ice to shift. As a result, the temperature divide won’t be as great on Sunday as we saw a day earlier.
SNOW: We’ll see snow develop farther north this time around, affecting northeastern Ontario and the Lake Superior shorelines. These areas could see up to 40 cm of additional accumulation through Monday.
Heavy snow will likely shut down Highway 11 and Highway 17 near Lake Superior and Timmins on Monday, with more than 40 cm of snow expected.
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ICE: As the warm front moves in, freezing rain is possible Sunday morning across the GTA before temperatures warm in the afternoon. Some areas east of the GTA may see freezing rain persist a little longer, with a quick millimetre or two of accretion that may lead to slippery conditions.
Freezing rain is likely for the same areas that saw ice from the first round of precipitation—but it won’t last as long this time, and it’ll push farther north toward Ottawa, the Ottawa Valley, and into northeastern Ontario.
Another 5 mm of ice accretion is possible for areas that already saw freezing rain, with upwards of 2-5 mm of ice possible for the Ottawa area. For areas that saw snow from the first round of precipitation, this will give the fresh snow an icy shell that will make shovelling even more difficult.
Beyond, temperatures could briefly soar into the teens during Sunday night and early Monday ahead of a strong cold front, which will bring much colder weather back to the region for April 1.
An active pattern is expected through the first week of April with changeable temperatures, which should tip to the cold side of seasonal. Most of April is expected to be changeable with a lack of consistent warm weather––temperatures are expected to tip to the cool side of seasonal for much of the month.
Stay with The Weather Network for more forecast information and updates on your weather across Ontario.