Heads up: Multi-day severe weather event shaping up on the Prairies
Another multi-day severe weather event is threatening Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northwestern Ontario in the coming days.
It's been a stormy start to summer so far, and it doesn't appear to be letting up as we head into the final days of June. A low-pressure system is forecast to develop in eastern Wyoming on Saturday, which will draw in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and become a catalyst for severe storms over the weekend and into Monday.
Stay alert for any sudden changes in the weather over the weekend and keep an eye on the radar if heading out over the weekend. One of the main threats forecasters are looking at is damaging winds, which would put any campers at greater risk from falling trees.
The storm risk is expected to shift east over the weekend, starting in Saskatchewan on Saturday and ending in northwestern Ontario on Monday.
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Saturday: 90-100 km/h wind gusts and quarter-sized hail threaten southern Saskatchewan
A low-level trough to the west of the developing stateside low-pressure system is expected to push northward into the Prairies on Saturday. The trough should force storms to develop linearly across southern Saskatchewan, but we could see some sneaky cells pop up before converging into a line through the evening hours.
Once the cells become linear, the main hazard folks will be up against are 90-100 km/h wind gusts, heavy rains, and up to quarter-sized hail.
Saturday is forecast to be the tamer of the active weather weekend, though, as there will be weaker upper-level support from the jet stream and a CAP (mass of stable air aloft) in place.
Whether or not we see any of the storms reach severe limits will depend on the CAP breaking. Currently, forecast models predict that a small area in southeastern Saskatchewan will see the CAP break in the evening. This area should also have sufficient wind shear and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), so we could see intense, possibly rotating, storms develop if the CAP breaks as predicted. Therefore, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Sunday and Monday: The main event
Ingredients are forecast to come together much better on Sunday and Monday for severe weather in Manitoba and northwestern Ontario.
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There will be greater upper-level support from the jet stream as it shifts east on Sunday, bringing evening higher moisture from the Gulf into Saskatchewan and Manitoba before shifting into Ontario on Monday.
Thanks to a concentrated stream of moisture into southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario on Monday, we'll see thunderstorm energy in the atmosphere reach extreme levels. There is some uncertainty as to where the most favourable environment will be, but current long-range models are suggesting it may be over the international border.
The extreme energy paired with ample upper-level support and a cold front are forecast to come together to create a volatile environment for storms to produce damaging winds, large hail, and rotation.
Needless to say, the coming days will keep forecasters busy as they monitor the developing situation. Remember to keep your phone on you to receive any alerts that may come through.
Stay with The Weather Network for the latest on your weather across the Prairies.