LIVE UPDATES: Groundhog Day predictions here!
Be sure to check back regularly, as we will continue to update this page with the latest groundhog predictions across Canada!
It's been an eventful winter so far, with historic snowfall. Record-smashing cold that has left some communities buried in snow.
Winter has been in high gear for the first month of 2026 across much of Canada, and that has many Canadians asking an age-old question: Will spring be here soon?
Groundhog Day 2026 puts the answer to that question in the tiny hands of furry prognosticators across Canada and the U.S. as we turn to everyone's favourite forecasting rodents to find out if we're in for an early taste of spring, or if it will be better to hibernate through the next six weeks.
The holiday is a popular tradition celebrated in North America on February 2. According to folklore, if the groundhog sees its shadow, it will be scared and return to its burrow. That translates to a forecast of six more weeks of winter on the way. Under cloudy skies, the groundhog stays out to visit, suggesting we'll see an early spring.
Not unlike their human counterparts, the marmot meteorologists don't always agree on the forecast. We’ll provide updates on each prognosis as they become available, so check back regularly to find out what the continent's prominent weather woodchucks have predicted for the months ahead.
Groundhog success rate since 2020 (The Weather Network/Canva Pro)
In the meantime, here's a refresher on last year's predictions.
2026 GROUNDHOG DAY RESULTS
Predictions will be published below as they become available.
Shubenacadie Sam: Nova Scotia
The annual event at Shubenacadie Wildlife Park was cancelled Monday due a nor'easter bringing heavy snow to the region. Spokespeople of the event shared that Shubenacadie Sam will not see a shadow, which according folkflore, means an early spring.
Lucy The Lobster: Barrington Passage, N.S.
Lucy agrees: It WILL be an early spring in Barrington Passage! She did not see her shadow this morning at the big reveal. So far, we are two for two.
'Lucy the Lobster' clawed her way onto the scene back in 2018, after she reportedly crawled from the water to a lobster trap on Groundhog Day.
Fred La Marmotte: Quebec
In Quebec, true spring conditions—characterized by sustained temperatures of 5 to 10°C and the end of snow cover—rarely arrive before late March or early April. However, it will be interesting to see if Fred la Marmotte's prediction aligns with the climatological norms of the region later this morning.
The results will be made in front of Permaculture school in Val d'Espoir. You can stream events, which begin at 6:30 am (EST), leading up to the big reveal, here!
Wiarton Willie: Ontario
It's more than just a reveal in Wiarton, Ont., the home of Wiarton Willie, it's a full morning of fun excitement.
Wiarton Willie makes his Groundhog Day prediction at 8:07 am (EST) today, at the former Sobey's parking lot, home of the future new Town Hall on William Street in Wiarton.
Manitoba Merv
Manitoba Merv has been leading local Groundhog Day celebrations for over 30 years.
He started as an actor in children's puppet shows at Oak Hammock Marsh Interpretive Centre but has since moved on to a Groundhog Day mascot with an impressive track record.
Merv is expected to make its bold predictions around 8 am (CST).
Balzac Billy: Alberta
In Alberta, we have Balzac Billy, a hog in disguise.
Groundhogs are plentiful in most parts of Canada and the U.S., but they aren't found in southern Alberta, and that is precisely where the community of Balzac is located.
Residents created a workaround with Balzac Billy, a man-sized mascot who has been predicting the spring forecast since the 1970s. Fun fact: he's not even a groundhog. According to the local media, Billy is a Richardson's ground squirrel, a common species in this locale.
This year, Billy will greet people in person at the Blue Grass Nursery and Garden Centre from 7 to 9 a.m. (MST).
Van Island Violet: British Columbia
Van Isle Violet has, in Groundhog Day terms, “seen her shadow” for four consecutive years. For 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 that proved to be an accurate prediction of six or more weeks of wintry weather on the island. Will she maintain her 100 per cent accuracy through 2026? Only time will tell.
Honourable mention: Punxsutawney Phil in Pennsylvania
Phil may be one of the most famous season-sensing groundhog. He's been a staple in Pennsylvania since 1886. drawing large crowds to Gobbler's Knob for the annual festival in his honour.
Let's see what Phil has to say about the next few weeks, weather-wise.
Groundhog Day prediction odds
Take a look at how Groundhogs have voted in the past, and you'll find why Willie typically has a sunnier outlook than others.
"Statistically, Willie would likely always have a better chance of predicting an early spring due to Wiarton's placement in the snow belts, a.k.a. the land of lake-effect snow and cloud," explains Weather Network meteorologist Kelly Sonnenburg. "Willie is a glass half-full type of rodent."