La Niña and the polar vortex team up to delay spring in Canada

Groundhog or not, winter is here to stay for a while longer yet

Are we in for an early spring or six more weeks of winter? We’ll soon be inundated with a variety of predictions based on whether your local groundhog (or lobster) sees its shadow.

Remember, groundhog or not—we live in Canada, where we often end up with eight or even 10 more weeks of wintry conditions.

Since our team of meteorologists doesn’t forecast based on whether we can see our shadows on Feb. 2, here is a preview of what science appears to be saying about the remainder of winter.

DON’T MISS: January’s jet stream drama leads to February pattern swap in Canada

February holds bad news for early-spring lovers

January was a relatively mild month across almost all of Canada.

January 2025 Temperature Anomalies

February will feature a major shift in the jet stream pattern across North America. This isn't good news if you're hoping for an early spring.

While Western Canada has dealt with several bouts of classic Canadian winter weather, the cold has lacked consistency, and at times it has felt more like early spring with periods of very mild temperatures.

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However, we expect frigid conditions will be more persistent across Western Canada in February—especially the first half of the month. This is what we often see during winters with La Niña conditions.

February 2025 Temperature Pattern

Meanwhile, a much warmer pattern is expected to dominate across the eastern U.S.—and at times this warmer weather will surge north across the border into southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and even into Atlantic Canada.

While parts of Canada could tip to the “warm” side of normal for February, we think that it would be highly misleading to call that an early start to spring.

Polar vortex mischief expected in February

The polar vortex is expected to remain on the Canadian side of the North Pole, which will keep an abundant supply of Arctic air readily available to fight back at times against the milder pattern.

The region from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada will be the battleground between the frigid weather and the spring-like conditions. As a result, we expect a temperature roller-coaster and an active storm track. This should deliver above-normal precipitation totals with messy winter storms (bringing snow, ice and rain) throughout the month.

February 2025 Outlook BC Snow Chances

Across Western Canada, the anticipated jet stream is not as favourable for above-normal precipitation totals, but most of the precipitation that falls will be snow. So, most areas should see near-normal or above-normal snow totals, including B.C.’s South Coast.

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As we progress through the second half of February, we expect that the warm pattern across the eastern U.S. will begin to fade. This will allow Arctic air across Western Canada to more readily spread into Eastern Canada at times during late February and into the first few weeks of March.

Early Mid March 2025 Temperature Pattern

While this may be disappointing news for many, keep in mind that “normal” temperatures climb rapidly during March. So we won’t remain in the deep freeze indefinitely, and spring will tease us at times with periods of milder weather.

However, regardless of what the groundhog (or lobster) has to say on Feb. 2, we do not expect consistent warmer weather will arrive early this year across Canada.

So, our call is for at least six more weeks of winter. Hopefully that doesn’t turn into eight or ten more weeks until pleasant spring weather arrives—but that is a concern.

Curious what the beginning of spring may look like? Please check back on Tuesday, March 4 for our March forecast, and then stay tuned for our spring forecast release on March 13.

WATCH: Who knows spring better, a groundhog or a meteorologist?

(Header image courtesy: Canva Pro, used for illustration purposes only)