Exceptional, tropical ocean heat will fuel the rise of soon-to-be Sara
Soon-to-be Tropical Storm Sara will reside over ocean heat comparable to peak season, with intense strengthening and high-impact weather expected. The storm will be one to watch for Mexico, Cuba and Florida.
We are on the verge of a late-season tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea.
Forecasters are keeping an eye on an area of agitated weather that will soon organize into a tropical storm, which will become Sara –– the 18th named storm of the season.
SEE ALSO: Next tropical storm is brewing in the Caribbean with high-impact potential
Soon-to-be Sara will reside over ocean heat comparable to peak season, with intense strengthening and high-impact weather are expected. This storm will be one to watch for Mexico, Cuba and Florida.
Nov. 13 spaghetti models.
Here are the current developments we are watching for in the Caribbean Sea.
This week:
A cluster of storms in the tropics will soon strengthen into a tropical depression named Sara. It is forecast to slowly move in the west Caribbean sea, nearly stalling in a low-shear, high-moisture environment, which is ideal for strengthening.
The ocean temperatures are highly unusual for this time of year. Typically in mid-November, the tropical season should be on the downswing but that's not the current case.
Ocean heat content in the Caribbean will allow the storm to tap into water so warm that it is comparable to the peak hurricane season average. That means there is an ample supply of deep, warm water to fuel the intensification of hurricanes.
Intense strengthening is likely through the weekend, but how strong it will get is uncertain. With that being said, a hurricane development is likely.
The consistent stall with the models brings a risk for significant rainfall to Central America by the weekend, with 100-200+ mm along the coast possible.
Next week:
High pressure is likely to develop over the eastern Caribbean or Bermuda, helping to steer the tropical disturbance towards land.
The strength and location of the high will alter the storm’s track, which is highly uncertain beyond this weekend.
Scenario 1: Storm tracks farther west over the Yucatan Peninsula, eventually reaching into the Gulf of Mexico and weakening significantly before turning near Florida. It seems slightly more likely.
Scenario 2: Storm tracks over the loop current with minimal interaction with land (Cuba). That would lead to a potentially major hurricane, but it seems less likely at this point.
There has only been three times on record that Florida been hit by a hurricane in November.
We do not have a named storm currently, so all forecast details beyond it developing are highly uncertain. There is high uncertainty in exact impacts, strength and storm track.
Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest forecast updates in the tropics and the Atlantic hurricane season.
With files from Rachel Modestino, a meteorologist at The Weather Network, and Nathan Howes, a digital reporter at The Weather Network.
