A potentially strong El Niño will develop by this summer
Forecasters are confident that conditions will flip to El Niño in the months ahead
A potentially strong El Niño event is likely in the months ahead, forecasters said this week, an event that could have far-reaching effects around the world.
Our ongoing La Niña event in the Pacific Ocean continues to diminish as sea surface temperatures gradually warm up.
The quick flip from La Niña to El Niño may cause noticeable effects beginning this summer.
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El Niño likely to arrive by this summer
Experts with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an El Niño watch in their monthly update on Thursday. A ‘watch’ means that conditions are favourable for the development of El Niño over the next six months.
El Niño occurs when water temperatures around the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean run at least 0.5°C warmer than normal for several consecutive months. A La Niña is the cold-water opposite of El Niño.
The latest CPC prediction calls for our ongoing La Niña event to fade away by the end of this spring, with a rapid onset of El Niño conditions by this summer.
How strong will El Niño get, and how long will it last?
Forecasters remain uncertain of how strong this event will grow. The CPC says there’s a one-in-three chance of a strong El Niño, which would have greater impacts around the world.
This upcoming El Niño is likely to continue into next winter. Impacts on the jet stream are much stronger during the winter than the summer, which could have a noticeable effect on Canadian weather patterns.
El Niño could affect this year’s hurricane season
The greatest effect we feel from El Niño in North America during summer and autumn is the pattern’s influence on the Atlantic hurricane season.
Warmer waters in the eastern Pacific can enhance wind shear that blows east over the Atlantic. These stronger winds can disrupt any disturbances trying to develop into tropical storms or hurricanes.
However, other factors such as warm Atlantic waters and an active African monsoon season can override El Niño’s influence, much as we saw during the 2023 hurricane season.
No matter how many storms form during a year, it only takes one landfall to make for a memorable hurricane season.