Canada, who ordered 20 degrees and a blizzard this week?

As southern Ontario closes in on a 20°C reading this week, regions across southern Manitoba will grapple with blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions.

For the first time in nearly 10 years, Canada failed to record a temperature of 20°C this late in the year. The odds are it happens this week, but it will come with a price.

A powerful Colorado low will be the dividing line.


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The contrast increases on Wednesday where at one point, as southern Ontario closes in on a 20°C reading, regions across southern Manitoba are grappling with blowing snow and possible blizzard conditions.

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The snow

It has been almost 50 days since Winnipeg, Man., recorded a temperature above freezing, so we know lots of cold air is on the northern flank of a developing Colorado low.

Snow will push across the border by Tuesday evening –- and with sustained winds of 30-40 km/h -- those conditions might tip toward blizzard criteria. This April snowstorm means business, as more than 30 cm will have accumulated across pockets of northwestern Ontario and southeastern Manitoba.

Baron - MBONSnow - April3

The heat

If the thermometer reads even remotely close to 20°C in early April, you know this isn’t homebrewed warmth.

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Courtesy of the Colorado low, the warmth blows in and areas above the escarpment in southern Ontario will be highly blustery –- increasing your odds of hitting the elusive 20-degree mark. If you were expecting a lovely day on the patio to experience the Canadian hot spot, may I remind you that there is a threat of some thunderstorm activity, along with winds exceeding 60 km/h. Hold onto those patio umbrellas.

Baron - ONTemps normal - April3

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It will hardly rain all day on Wednesday, but be prepared for changing conditions.

The messiness in between

If you haven’t been mentioned, yet, are you off the hook? No.

Frankly, this might be some of the worst weather. When the Colorado low lifts northeast, stubborn-cold air at the surface lingers across northeastern Ontario and Quebec.

Baron - ONQCFreeze - April3

The valleys and lower topography trap the cold air as the warm front rides in aloft, creating slick travel conditions. It’s possible that early Wednesday afternoon Collingwood, Ont., will be close to 18°C while a wintry mix falls in the National Capital Region –- just a few hundred kilometres northeast.

Over the next few days, we’ll chat more about specific thunderstorm risks, but needless to say, there’s a sizable risk along the cold front on Wednesday across southern Ontario.