15-30+ cm of snow set to hit Ontario with double storms this week
Winter weather alerts are widespread across Ontario, with a major winter storm taking aim for Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas could see 20+ cm of snow, with additional amounts adding up through this weekend with yet another storm on route
After the first major snowstorm of the season hit the Toronto area this past weekend, eyes are on two additional systems that threaten some significant snow totals this week.
Winter weather warnings are widespread for the first storm moving in on Wednesday, urging drivers to consider postponing non-essential travel through Thursday morning. A bevy of alerts have been issued, including a snowfall warning for the city of Toronto and other locales, along with winter storm warnings and special weather statements.
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While the exact track and impacts are still somewhat uncertain at this time, some areas could see more than 20 cm of snow by the time it wraps up through Thursday. The 401 corridor and much of southern Ontario look to be in the direct path of some of the heaviest snow if a southerly track verifies.
Poor visibility in heavy blowing snow, as well as the risk of freezing rain, could make for some very difficult travel conditions, and disruptions to power. The timing of this mid-week system will likely also make it a much harder one to handle.
As always, be sure to keep up-to-date on your local weather alerts, and always check the highway conditions before heading out.
Wednesday into Thursday: Southern Ontario looks to be in direct path of major snow
All eyes are on a looming winter storm that will likely result in difficult travel and cancellations or closures across southern Ontario through Thursday morning.
A Texas low is set to develop early Wednesday, gradually strengthening as it moves up the Mississippi Valley. As of Tuesday morning, computer models have trended slightly southward across Ontario, putting southern and northeastern sections of the province in line for 15-30+ cm of snow. This will primarily be a snowstorm, but a changeover to ice pellets and freezing rain is expected near Lake Erie, with the risk for significant ice accretion possible.
Storm timing breakdown
Wednesday afternoon: Localized lake-effect snow will develop over western Lake Ontario, impacting areas from Oakville to Hamilton.
Light snow will begin across southwestern Ontario, with the leading edge pushing into the Toronto area by the start of the afternoon rush hour traffic.
Wednesday evening: Snowfall rates will intensify across southern Ontario, with freezing precipitation likely along the Lake Erie shorelines. Wind gusts will pick up to 60 km/h.
Wednesday night: The heaviest snowfall rates are expected later Wednesday, with 1-3 cm falling through the overnight hours across the south.
The snow will also begin in the Ottawa area, continuing at a moderate intensity across the east through Thursday.
Thursday morning: By Thursday morning, milder air and rain nudges into and along Lake Erie to the Niagara Peninsula, possibly reaching the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), as well.
The precipitation tapers from west to east, through the morning in the southwest, and by the early afternoon across the GTA.
Temperatures will fall steadily throughout the day, turning colder and much windier. Widespread gusts between 40-60 km/h are expected, which could blow around the freshly fallen snow.
The strongest winds will blow over the Niagara region, and eastern sections of Lake Ontario, where gusts could reach between 70-90 km/h.
The combination of gusty winds, wet snow, and icy conditions could result in power outages throughout the day.
Thursday afternoon: Conditions gradually start to improve, and snowfall slowly eases across eastern Ontario.
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Significant snowfall totals
A widespread, heavy swath of snow is forecast north of the low, with 20-40 cm possible for areas through cottage country. Snowfall rates of 5 cm per hour could impact areas to the north.
Between 15-30 cm is likely across the GTA, with 20-30+ cm across the Ottawa region.
The track of this low will affect exact snowfall amounts, but there's high confidence that hazardous travel conditions are likely Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Drivers are urged to consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve.
Another snowstorm for Family Day weekend
Fair weather is expected on Friday, but another winter storm is forecast to impact the region during the weekend. It is still too early to have confidence in the storm track and impacts, but widespread snow totals of 10-20+ cm are possible, once again.
Frigid conditions are likely for Family Day, with high temperatures hovering in the minus teens.
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Bands of lake-effect snow are expected early next week, and then the risk for another significant system or two later in the week. The next two weeks could really shape how this winter is remembered across the region.
Colder-than-normal temperatures are expected to dominate through the end of February and into March.
Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on your forecast across Ontario.