Atlantic teases tropical activity before spring has even arrived
We're still more than two months away from the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, but the basin is already showing signs of activity this week. Is it a preview of things to come?
The Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially get underway until June 1, but that hasn't stopped the tropics from teasing forecasters with possible early developments.
However, there is no need for alarm at this time, so but don’t be fooled by an area of interest that the U.S National Hurricane Center (NHC) is watching. There is a low probability of the disturbance developing in the next five days. The NHC has deemed this activity as non-tropical.
SEE ALSO: Records shattered as historic 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends
According to the NHC, a non-tropical area of low pressure located about 1,126 kilometres northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves northward to northwestward into an environment of strong, upper-level winds and dry air through Tuesday.
The NHC has given this non-tropical area of low pressure a 10 per cent chance of formation through the next seven days.
The agency will begin issuing tropical weather outlooks on a regular basis beginning May 15. Special weather outlooks, however, will be generated as necessary during the remainder of the off-season.
2024 Atlantic hurricane season review
The year 2024 featured a historic Atlantic season across the basin, which generated several scale-topping storms and one of the deadliest hurricanes in modern history (Helene).
There were 18 named storms, of which, 11 became hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes obtained major category.
The good news is the upcoming hurricane season is not expected to be as active as seen over the past few years.
Two of the main drivers for the recent hurricane seasons has been the existence of La Niña and El Niño. We will be in neither of these patterns in the 2025 season.
With a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, we can expect a less active season. However, there is another driver that will be in place this summer and into fall––the warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures. They are expected to remain warm in the Atlantic, a trend that's been dominating in recent years. Warm ocean waters fuel tropical systems, so expect a continued environment favourable for development.
With files from Jaclyn Whittal, a meteorologist at The Weather Network, and Nathan Howes and Dennis Mersereau, digital journalists at The Weather Network.