A super typhoon could make landfall in the Pacific this weekend
A growing typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean could target several islands by this weekend
A budding storm in the western Pacific Ocean will rapidly intensify over the next couple of days, potentially threatening land as a super typhoon by this weekend.
Typhoon Bavi is expected to grow into the equivalent of a scale-topping Category 5 storm by Saturday as it approaches the Northern Mariana Islands.
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Rapid intensification expected over the next few days
A favourable environment over western Pacific Ocean allowed a disturbance to quickly organize into a typhoon on Thursday.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) expects this system to grow as it steadily tracks westward over very warm ocean waters.
Conditions should allow Bavi to rapidly intensify into a super typhoon by this weekend, packing maximum sustained winds of 250 km/h, or the equivalent of a Category 5 storm.
Based on the current forecast, Bavi will threaten the Northern Mariana Islands and possibly Guam near peak intensity during the weekend.
Forecasters often have to watch powerful typhoons in the western Pacific as they can recurve and affect weather patterns over North America. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time.
Beyond the islands, models suggest that the storm will continue on a westward track that may take the storm toward Taiwan and mainland China into next week.
A region hard-hit by storms in recent years
Several powerful typhoons have affected the islands in recent years. Super Typhoon Yutu brought widespread destruction when it directly struck the Northern Marianas in 2018. Typhoon Mawar caused further damage to the region in 2023.
Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are both territories of the United States. The islands are located about 2,500 km east of Manila and a little more than 6,000 km west of Hawaii.
Around 170,000 people live on Guam, while the Northern Marianas have a population of about 40,000. The U.S. maintains several military installations on the islands, and Guam’s airport serves as a strategic hub for passenger airline service in the region.
Header image courtesy of CIRA/RAMMB.