A major obstacle will delay the arrival of winter in Quebec
Montreal may end the fall season with no measurable snow -- this has only happened two other times in history
Mild pattern
It's no secret that Quebec is experiencing a particularly mild fall, potentially one of the warmest on record.
November is no exception to this trend, either. In fact, in Montreal, the first part of the month was milder than normal by almost 2°C! According to computer models, the second part of the month will also remain above normal.
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As a result, winter conditions have been slow to set in for the southernmost regions of Quebec, especially along the St. Lawrence River.
If the trend continues, fall could end without any measurable snow for the region. If this were to happen, it would only be the third time in record keeping, with 2006 and 1957 the other two years with no recorded autumn snow.
Late winter
November looks to end the same way it began: mild. The pattern continues to indicate that mild air will dominate the second half of the month without an extended stretch of any cold temperatures.
However, one scenario is worth watching, and that includes a ridge that could form in the northwest of the continent. In this context, strong winds at altitude could allow for stronger cold flows towards Quebec. There is no indication at this time that the Arctic air would last, however, especially because that cold air hasn't settled in place in the Arctic either.
As it currently stands, the first part of December could also be mild.
Long range outlook
The long-term forecast still indicates an abnormally mild pattern in Quebec for the first half of December. It is during this period that we normally see the chance of lasting winter conditions in the south of the province, with temperatures below freezing day and night, a white blanket on the ground, and the first snowfall. However, the atmospheric context does not favor such a scenario this year.
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Temperatures have been abnormally mild for much of the fall season, and that looks to continue. This is why we don't see the potential of an early, or even normal, start to winter this year.
This article was translated from MétéoMédia, The Weather Network’s Quebec-based sister station.