Endangered marmot Van Isle Violet to test perfect Groundhog Day record
Meet Van Island Violet, the prognosticating marmot at risk on Vancouver Island
Vancouver Island’s favourite fortune-telling rodent is set to put her perfect Groundhog Day forecasting record to the test on February 2.
Van Isle Violet has, in Groundhog Day terms, “seen her shadow” for three consecutive years, accurately predicting six or more weeks of wintry weather on the island.
So, will this marmot prophet make yet another flawless forecast? Stay tuned to The Weather Network this Groundhog Day to find out!
Regardless, Violet’s caretakers are quick to remind us that divination is just a side gig for the busy ground squirrel.
“Her primary job is to breed, have pups, and help recover the wild population,” explains Adam Taylor, Executive Director of the Marmot Recovery Foundation.
“It’s important to note that as much as we enjoy Groundhog Day, Vancouver Island marmots are a critically endangered species.”
Groundhog Day falls about halfway through the marmot’s typical hibernation schedule. (Marmot Recovery Foundation)
REFRESHER: 2024 Groundhog Day results
As Taylor explains, there are currently fewer than 400 Marmota vancouverensis, commonly called the Vancouver Island Marmot, left in the wild.
The species, endemic to Vancouver Island specifically, experienced a sharp decline beginning in the 1980s. At one point it’s believed there were fewer than 30 left in the wild.
While there was little study of Vancouver Island marmots before this time, Taylor says the main theory behind the decline has to do with resource development.
“They live in relatively small ecosystems at quite high elevations in open meadows [that] aren’t really disturbed, but what we manage to do is really disrupt the way marmots move between those ecosystems,” he says.
“The smaller and more isolated a population is, the more vulnerable it is to extinction.”
High elevation logging, for instance, has encouraged marmot populations to move into cutblocks as opposed to natural meadow settings. When new trees grow, they then provide cover for predators like cougars, which can wipe out a local population in a matter of weeks. Hydroelectric dams have also created lakes which can block intermountain pathways (marmots aren’t strong swimmers).
It’s also believed that general development on the island has pushed predators and prey closer together.
The Marmot Recovery Foundation was established in 1999 in response as an effort to prevent extinction and help preserve the island’s biodiversity. Studies suggest the high mountain meadows home to marmots, which turn over soil as they burrow into the earth, have more biodiversity than meadows that don’t.
Violet lives in the Marmot Recovery Foundation’s captive breeding program, which seeks to help restore wild populations by allowing marmots to breed in a safe, controlled environment.
As she’ll be deep asleep on February 2, in roughly the middle of her hibernation cycle, the foundation’s team will actually record Violet’s prediction while simultaneously doing a routine health checkup.
The whole thing will happen under the artificial lights of the foundation’s facility near Mount Washington (located due to its proximity to existing marmot populations).
The captive breeding program has been running since the early 2000s. Pups born in captivity are raised in a secured habitat designed to simulate a natural one, and either retained for breeding or released into the wild according to their genetic importance. (Marmot Recovery Foundation)
She’ll barely make any movement or noise during the exercise, but it’s that tiny bit of motion or sound—an annoyed grunt, perhaps—that will be used to decide whether or not she’s been spooked.
“She’ll be in deep, deep hibernation, and it’ll all be inside. We’ll keep it pretty dark, with a consistent temperature,” Taylor explains.
“When marmots are in deep hibernation, we consider them immunocompromised. She’s maybe taking four breaths a minute. So it’s just staff that go in and record the health checkup, and then it’s right back into the release groups.”
Meteorologically speaking, most of Vancouver Island is typically pretty spring-like even by mid-March. The average daily high on March 20 in Nanaimo, for example, is 10.7 °C over the past five years.
Still, Taylor has full confidence in whatever Violet will have to say, even if, like many of us at this time of year, she just wants to hit snooze.
“You know if you’re a marmot, I feel like there might be some desire for some more sleep, so maybe there’s some wish fulfillment going on, but she’s been pretty accurate to date.”
Want to help the cause?
Taylor notes that donations play a big role in helping the foundation do its work.
He also asks anyone who sees a marmot in the wild to report the sighting to the foundation.
On top of that, he says practicing good “outdoor hygiene,” such as ensuring your boots are clean when starting a hike, helps ensure marmots stay healthy and disease-free.