2025 could land in top 3 warmest years on record: Canadian government

2025 isn't likely to surpass 2023's and 2024's record-breaking, global temperature medians, but is 'virtually certain' to be hotter than every January to December period on record prior to the past two years, a recent Canadian government report stated.

With 2024 being deemed the hottest year on record for the planet, and the first to go 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures, what could 2025 look like globally?

It could approach last year's record-setting temperatures, but is not likely to exceed it, according to the Canadian government's first publicly available, annual, global-mean temperature forecast, published earlier this month.

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It is also unlikely to surpass 2023's median temperatures worldwide, but is "virtually certain" (higher than 99 per cent chance) to be hotter than every January to December period on record prior to the past two years, the report stated.

According to the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, the annual, global, average temperature in 2025 is forecast to reach between 1.35 C and 1.55 C (with a central estimate of 1.45 C) above the median for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). It will be the 12th consecutive year to see temperatures hit at least 1.0 C above pre-industrial levels.

So, that leaves 2025 potentially placing in the top three warmest years on record. Both 2023 and 2024 experienced record-breaking years of warmth, reaching 1.43 C and 1.55 C above the pre-industrial period, respectively.

"The forecast reaffirms that the significant increase in global temperatures over the past two years is not a temporary fluctuation, but a clear signal of the long-term global warming that is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Looking ahead, Canada’s climate model predicts the next five years will be the warmest five-year period on record," said Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), in a news release.

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energy electricity greenhouse gas emissions Credit: acilo. E+. Getty Images

(acilo. E+. Getty Images)

Seasonal climate conditions can be forecast one year in advance

Produced by the federal government, the yearly forecast is compiled with version 3 of the Canadian Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction System (CanSIPS), which has the capability to predict seasonal climate conditions up to one year in advance.

At the moment, results are revised monthly on the federal government website to offer insights into temperature, precipitation, and other vital climate variables.

"The government of Canada’s seasonal to decadal forecasts help fill the gap between short-term weather forecasts and long-term climate projections, providing governments, researchers, and communities worldwide with vital data to better understand and prepare for the growing impacts of climate change. This data also underscores the urgent need to transition to a greener, more prosperous, low-carbon economy, both in Canada and abroad," ECCC said.

carbon dioxide emissions (acilo/ E+/ Getty Images)

(acilo/ E+/ Getty Images)

It should be noted that just because global temperatures exceeded the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 C threshold above pre-industrial levels in 2024, it doesn't mean that the binding targets have been breached. The threshold applies to long-term global temperature averages, ECCC mentioned in the news release.

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“Canadian communities and businesses are experiencing climate change impacts with greater intensity and frequency. These impacts affect infrastructure, health and well-being, culture, and the economy. The new, publicly available, global temperature forecast is part of the government of Canada’s commitment to provide trusted climate data. This helps decision-makers build stronger, more climate-resilient communities and economies to benefit all Canadians," said Steven Guilbeault, Canada's Minister of Environment and Climate Change, in the news release.

Sometime in 2025, the federal government will also start posting seasonal and decadal forecasts on ClimateData.ca.

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Thumbnail courtesy: mesh cube/Getty Images. Graphic used for illustration purposes only.

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