How and when will life on Earth end? Study may have found the answers
Extraordinary heat from a future supercontinent formation could lead to a mass extinction of mammals, including humans, in about 250 million years, according to a study led by the University of Bristol.
Attempting to predict the end of the world is far from a new idea and is a process that has had absolutely no luck in finding a time frame or date.
Given the amount of threats facing the world right now, whether it's war, famine, disease or climate change, it's understandable that many people over time have made attempts at guessing the end of life on Earth. In fact, we even have a Doomsday Clock that is ever-so close to striking midnight, spelling our doom if it hits that time. Well, according to its parameters it would, anyway.
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Well, a 2023 study led by the University of Bristol seems to have pinpointed a cause and an approximate time for the demise of all living things on the planet.
However, there is no need to start panicking.
According to researchers, in 250 million years from now, approximately, the unprecedented heat will likely lead to the demise of nearly mammals on the planet––the next mass extinction since the dinosaurs bid adieu.
The image shows the warmest, average, monthly temperature (Celsius) for Earth, and the projected supercontinent (Pangea Ultima) in 250 million years, when it would be difficult for almost any mammals to survive. (University of Bristol)
That shouldn't come as a surprise since the planet is breaking records continuously for heat, especially for the warmest year on the globe.
“The newly emerged supercontinent would effectively create a triple whammy, comprising the continentality effect, hotter sun and more (carbon dioxide) CO2 in the atmosphere, of increasing heat for much of the planet. The result is a mostly hostile environment devoid of food and water sources for mammals," said Alexander Farnsworth, lead study author and senior research associate at the University of Bristol, in a news release.
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“Widespread temperatures of between 40 C to 50 C, and even greater daily extremes, compounded by high levels of humidity, would ultimately seal our fate. Humans––along with many other species–– would expire due to their inability to shed this heat through sweat, cooling their bodies.”
Earth's continents to eventually merge into a single, 'largely uninhabitable' mainland
The analysis incorporated and presented the first-ever supercomputer climate models of the future, showing how weather extremes will significantly escalate once the world’s continents eventually merge to form one hot, dry and largely uninhabitable supercontinent.
Heat wave and drought illustration. (Pijama61/Getty Images/1783909060-170667a)
The next supercontinent will be known as Pangea Ultima, also referred to as Pangea Proxima, with an approximate time frame of coming to fruition in the next 250 million years.
As part of the process to determine what could lead to the demise of mammals millions of years from now, a group of scientists incorporated climate models to run simulations of various data--temperatures, wind, rain and humidity trends for the future Pangea Ultima formation.
To gauge what CO2 levels could be at that far in the future, those involved in the study used models of tectonic plate movement, ocean chemistry and biology to pinpoint inputs and outputs of CO2, according to the university.
Benjamin Mills, a professor at the University of Leeds, led the futuristic CO2 calculations.
(acilo/ E+/ Getty Images)
“We think CO2 could rise from around 400 parts per million (ppm) today to more than 600 ppm many millions of years in the future. Of course, this assumes that humans will stop burning fossil fuels. Otherwise, we will see those numbers much, much sooner," said Mills, in the news release.
The results of the simulation highlights the already high temperatures the world is experiencing will increase even further, the study said, with the sun set to grow brighter, discharging more energy and warming the Earth even more.
In addition to the increase of the world's temperatures in the future, the tectonic processes, occurring in the Earth’s crust and creating a supercontinent formation, would bring about a rise in volcanic eruptions––which generate significant CO2 releases into the atmosphere––leading to additional heating of the planet, researchers say.
(Getty Images. Earth maps courtesy of NASA)
"This work also highlights that a world within the so-called ‘habitable zone’ of a solar system may not be the most hospitable for humans depending on whether the continents are dispersed, as we have today, or in one large supercontinent," said Alexander J. Farnsworth, a visiting professor at the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (ITP) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, in the news release.
But, despite the further warming of our planet as time progresses on a shorter time scale, resulting to more stress and heat-related deaths in some regions, there is research cited by the university to indicate that Earth "should largely remain habitable" until the creation of Pangea Ultima.
However, when the time comes for the supercontinent formation, findings from researchers note that only between eight per cent and 16 per cent of land would be livable for mammals.
