Forecast may offer clues about Raptors' odds of winning

Published on May. 29, 2019, 7:37 PM

Here's our predictions.

The Toronto Raptors are set to open the NBA Finals in a home game Thursday night against the Golden State Warriors.

It's the first time in Raptors history the team has made it this far, but what are their odds of winning Thursday?

Several sports outlets are giving the Warriors an edge over the Raptors.

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Here are our predictions, based solely on the forecast.

In the 2019 playoffs, the Raptors won eight home games. Here's a breakdown of them, along with the Toronto temperature on those days.

A general view of Scotiabank Arena during the eastern conference trophy presentation to the Toronto Raptors after game six of the Eastern conference finals of the 2019 NBA Playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks at Scotiabank Arena. Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports/REUTERS

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ROUND 1

Game 2 Vs. Orlando | April 16

SCORE: 111-82
TEMPERATURE: High 8.6°C | Low: -1.8°C | Rain: 0.4 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Below. Historical average for April 16 is 12°C

Game 5 Vs. Orlando | April 23

SCORE: 115-96
TEMPERATURE: High 14.8°C | Low: 6.0°C | Rain: 2.2 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Above. Historical average for April 23 is 12°C

ROUND 2

Game 1 Vs. Philadelphia | April 27

SCORE: 108-95
TEMPERATURE: High 8.0°C | Low: 1.0°C | Rain: 0 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Below. Historical average for April 27 is 13°C

Game 5 Vs. Philadelphia | May 7

SCORE: 125-89
TEMPERATURE: High 14.7°C | Low: 4.7°C | Rain: 2.6 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Below. Historical average for May 7 is 15°C

Game 7 Vs. Philadelphia | May 12

SCORE: 92-90
TEMPERATURE: High 9.6°C | Low: 4.6°C | Rain: 5.4 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Below. Historical average for May 12 is 15°C

ROUND 3

Game 3 Vs. Milwaukee | May 19

SCORE: 118-112
TEMPERATURE: High 21.6°C | Low: 9.1°C | Rain: 2.0 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Above. Historical average for May 19 is 17°C

Game 4 Vs. Milwaukee | May 21

SCORE: 120-102
TEMPERATURE: High 18.5°C | Low: 4.7°C | Rain: 0 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Above. Historical average for May 21 is 17°C

Game 6 Vs. Milwaukee | May 25

SCORE: 100-94
TEMPERATURE: High 20.1°C | Low: 10.8°C | Rain: 28 mm
ABOVE OR BELOW SEASONAL? Above. Historical average for May 25 is 18°C

STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN

WINS ON ABOVE SEASONAL DAYS: 4/8 = 50%
WINS ON BELOW SEASONAL DAYS: 4/8 = 50%
WINS ON DAYS WITH RECORDED RAINFALL: 6/8 = 75%
WINS ON DAYS WITH DOUBLE-DIGIT HIGHS: 5/8 = 62.5%

Based on our (very scientific) breakdown of home game playoff wins, the Raptors won the most games on days with double-digit highs and some rain.

Toronto's Thursday forecast is calling for a daytime high of 22°C, a nightly low of 9°C, with a 30 percent chance of rain.

Based on that, we're giving the Raptors a meteorological edge.