Friday, October 15th 2021, 8:50 pm - A soggy system with a tropical connection will bring a widespread soaking rain to kick off the weekend in southern Ontario.
Friday evening showers and storms in southern Ontario briefly included a marine tornado warning on Lake Erie, but the real downpours were yet to come. Those deluges, fuelled by moisture from a former hurricane, were set to intensify overnight into Saturday morning, and the first half of the weekend looks to be a cooler and wet experience for much of the province. What to expect, below.
Visit our Complete Guide to Fall 2021 for an in-depth look at the Fall Forecast, tips to plan for it and much more!
THE WEEKEND: HEAVY RAIN PUSHES IN, TEMPERATURES TUMBLE FROM LATE SUMMER-LIKE VALUES
After some showers as a prelude Friday, the heaviest rains were due to arrive overnight, continuing into Saturday morning before gradually tapering.
Widespread special weather statements are in place for the rainfall, whose origins were within what was once Hurricane Pamela in the Pacific Ocean. Pamela made landfall in Mexico on Wednesday, and since then, its moisture has been making its way northeast, boosted Friday by another system in the U.S.
Widespread totals of 15-40 mm are likely by the time all is said and done, with localized totals of 50 mm possible and the potential for flooding where the heaviest rain occurs.
Much cooler and near seasonal temperatures will filter in behind this system, with some lake-effect showers possible and a brisk northwest wind. Temperatures will struggle to even reach the mid-teens by Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: WARMER CONDITIONS MAKE A BRIEF RETURN
Warmer conditions and abundant sunshine will return for a couple of days early to mid next week, then turning colder later in the week once again.
"We're watching the potential for much colder weather late week and weekend, and possibly our first lake-effect flakes of the season for parts of the snow-belt regions, especially across higher terrain," says Dr. Doug Gillham, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.
Overall, a more changeable pattern is expected for the second half of October, but temperatures will still tip to the warm side of seasonal.
Be sure to check back for the latest updates on the incoming soggy system in Ontario.