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Hurricane experts still predict an active Atlantic season ahead

Friday, August 5th 2022, 8:53 am - Despite the recent lull in activity, NOAA reiterated its forecast of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in the months ahead.


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We’re still on track for an active Atlantic hurricane season in the weeks and months to come, according to the latest outlook issued by U.S. forecasters at NOAA.

The agency reiterated its earlier forecast of an above-average hurricane season this year, which would make this the seventh consecutive season with more named storms than usual.

60 percent chance of an above-average hurricane season ahead

The Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, typically produces about 14 named storms in an average year. Seven of those tropical storms grow into hurricanes, and about three of those hurricanes grow into major hurricanes of category three intensity or stronger.

NOAA’s latest forecast calls for a three-in-five chance that this year’s hurricane season ending with 14 to 20 named storms on the books, with about half of those storms strengthening into hurricanes, and three to five of those storms becoming major hurricanes.

Forecasters give the season a 30 percent chance of coming in around normal, and just a 10 percent chance that activity will wind up below average by the end of the season on November 30th.

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Alex, Bonnie, and Colin have already formed

We’ve seen three named storms so far this hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Alex formed just two days after the start of the season, bringing foul weather to parts of Florida, The Bahamas, and Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Bonnie in the southern Caribbean Sea during the last week of June. The system made landfall in Nicaragua, accomplishing a rare feat by crossing into the eastern Pacific Ocean intact. The storm then grew into a formidable hurricane in the eastern Pacific as it wandered away from land.

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Several days after Bonnie’s formation, Tropical Storm Colin formed near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, bringing squally weather to the Carolina coasts during its short existence.

While it’s been rather quiet across the Atlantic since Colin formed at the beginning of July, it’s far too early for coastal residents to let their guards down just yet. The vast majority of all hurricane activity in the Atlantic forms between mid-August and mid-October.

Stay tuned to The Weather Network for the latest updates throughout hurricane season.

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