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Storms subside in Central Canada but localized flooding risk remains

Monday, May 16th 2022, 9:26 pm - The brief shot of summer-like weather is in the rear-view mirror in Ontario and Quebec, replaced by temperatures reflective of spring. Will the cool weather last?

The first real fling with summer is all but done in southern Ontario and Quebec, featuring 30-degree heat and severe storms that produced Canada's first tornado of the season on Sunday. While the latest threat for severe storms has eased off in eastern Ontario and Quebec, they're not out of the woods, yet, as lingering rain continues to pose a localized flooding risk through Monday overnight. Conditions will improve by Tuesday morning, with much chillier air in place. More on what's left of the storms, plus a look at the split May long weekend forecast that looms, below.

MUST SEE: It never ends: Snowfall forecast for these six provinces this week

INTO TUESDAY MORNING: FLOODING THREAT STILL A CONCERN BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE

A low-pressure system that sparked thunderstorms across Ontario and Quebec brought an end to the early preview of summer heat Monday. The storms prompted Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) to issue severe thunderstorm warnings in eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

The south to north motion of the storms contributed to a localized flood threat, particularly in southern Quebec and through the Eastern Townships.

ONQCTIMING

While the threat of severe weather diminished in the evening hours, the risk of localized flooding remains through Monday overnight in southern Quebec and eastern Ontario as the rain hangs on.

However, conditions will improve by Tuesday morning, as below seasonal air arrives in behind the system, lingering through Wednesday. There could even a wintry mix of rain and snow likely on the backend of the system as it departs northern Quebec.

Tuesday won't feature an abundant amount of sunshine, as the day will include clouds mixed in, there will be periods where the sun will shine a bit more.

EASTTEMP

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the heat that was so prevalent on the weekend. Daytime highs will drop back down to the mid-teens across Central Canada, with parts of southwestern Ontario managing to hang onto 20-degree values.

LOOK AHEAD: CLOSELY EYEING THE LONG WEEKEND TEMPERATURE SPLIT

By Thursday, temperatures will return to seasonal with low to mid-20-degree daytime highs expected. More of the summer-like heat builds for southern Ontario and Quebec Friday, with temperatures hitting the upper 20s and even low 30s again.

EASTFRIDAYTEMP

An active storm track will span the region for the long weekend, however, as rain and thunderstorms accompany a low pressure system as it tracks into the Great Lakes for the start of the weekend. This storm boundary will make for a tricky temperature forecast in southern Ontario this weekend.

If the front slows down, southern Ontario will see one more very warm day before much cooler weather returns for Sunday and Monday. Widespread rain and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of the cold front, but there is a lot of uncertainty as to how long it will take for the front to track all the way across the region.

Behind the boundary, cooler, below seasonal air will move in for the second half of the weekend, with temperatures set to rebound through mid-to-late next week.

Be sure to check back for the latest weather updates across southern Ontario and Quebec.

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