Thursday, September 9th 2021, 4:41 pm - The Weather Network's official 2021 Summer Forecast reveals what Canada can expect for the heart of the summer season.
Summer is the most anticipated season of the year for many Canadians, likely more so this year than ever. With summer now upon us, will the weather be ideal for getting outside to enjoy your favourite summer activities? To help answer this question, let’s take a look at The Weather Network’s summer forecast for the rest of June, July and August.
Our summer forecast features great weather for enjoying the beach and backyard barbecues, as most of Canada will see near-normal or above-normal temperatures, and more than the typical number of sunny days.
However, there is a downside for areas where we expect a hot and dry summer. Drought conditions are a major concern for agricultural regions across much of Western Canada, along with a heightened risk for wildfires and poor air quality later in the season. On the other side of the country, a very warm and occasionally stormy summer is expected along with a very active hurricane season, and an increased risk for tropical impacts to Atlantic Canada.
Here is a closer look at the temperature pattern that we expect to dominate across Canada this summer.
The hottest weather this summer (relative to normal) is expected across the southern Prairies. The area of greatest uncertainty is across Ontario, where periods of cooler weather will break up the heat at times. However, for southern Ontario we think that we will see enough hot weather to tip the final numbers to the warm side of normal. Across northern Ontario, the back-and-forth swings in temperatures should come close to offsetting each other and result in near normal temperatures.
Here is a look at our national precipitation forecast for the summer season.
While late May and the first half of June finally brought some relief from the exceptionally dry conditions across the southern Prairies, we are concerned that this region will return to a very dry pattern as we head into the heart of summer, with the potential for major impacts on agriculture. Dry conditions across southern and central B.C., and also across parts of northern Ontario would also bring a heightened risk for wildfires.
Visit our Complete Guide to Summer 2021 for tips to plan for the season ahead and much more!
Further to the north, we expect a stormy pattern at times across parts of the central and northern Prairie provinces, then stretching east to central Quebec. A wetter pattern is also expected near the East Coast of the United States and that should extend northeast across the Maritime provinces with a heightened risk to be impacted by tropical storms and hurricanes.
Southern Ontario and southern Quebec could tip either way as they are sandwiched between the anticipated dry pattern to the west, and a wetter and stormier pattern to the south and east. However, we think that the most likely scenario for this region is that we see extended periods of dry weather, which will get broken up by strong storms at times and a few moisture-laden systems.
Below is a more detailed look at the conditions that we expect across Canada this summer:
A hot and dry summer is expected across the southern and central Interior of the province, and a very warm and dry summer is expected for the southern and central coast, including Vancouver and Victoria. Northern parts of B.C. will also see above-normal temperatures, but near normal rainfall is expected.
An abundance of warm or hot sunny days will be ideal for those who are looking forward to spending time on or by the water. However, the combination of above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall will bring a heightened risk for wildfires and poor air quality, especially during the second half of the season.
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A hot and dry summer is expected across most of the province, especially across southern and central parts of the province (including Calgary and Edmonton), where we are concerned about a return to drought conditions during July and August with a risk for major impacts to agriculture. We are also concerned about the heightened risk for wildfires and the associated periods of poor air quality for areas that are downwind of the fires.
To the north of the region that sees a hot and dry summer, we expect an active storm track with frequent showers and thunderstorms. However, there is still uncertainty as to exactly where that will set up and it is possible that we will see the active storm track set up further to the south from our current forecast.