Monday, September 16th 2019, 5:30 am - The Weather Network releases its official 2019 Fall Forecast, including an exclusive sneak peek at the 2019-20 winter season.
Ready or not, fall is here! After a short summer, fall has started quickly across most of Canada. The map below shows temperature anomalies for the first half of September. The various shades of blue and green highlight the regions where we have been colder than normal since September 1st.
Does this mean that winter is just around the corner?
While fall has burst onto the scene long before most Canadians were ready, we are not in a freefall to winter. Across Canada, we will see extended stretches of pleasant weather before winter arrives. Most Canadians can expect typical fall weather during the next two and a half months with near-normal temperatures. However, across BC, Alberta, and southern parts of Atlantic Canada we expect that temperatures will tip to the mild side of normal.
Keep in mind that during the fall season, "normal" temperatures change very quickly, especially across central Canada where normal temperatures drop by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius per week. The drop-off is not quite as dramatic closer to the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. The graphic below shows normal high temperatures for September 16th (orange bars) versus November 30th (blue bars).
Most of Canada should see near-normal precipitation totals during the fall, but a few areas have the potential to end up wetter than normal. This includes coastal areas of British Columbia, where even a typical fall includes an abundance of rain. Much of Atlantic Canada should see above-average rainfall totals as well, due to a few systems that tap into tropical moisture and bring excessive rainfall totals.
Here’s a more detailed look at the conditions that we expect across Canada this fall:
BRITISH COLUMBIA
Warmer than normal temperatures are expected for the season as a whole, but that does not mean that B.C. will just coast through the fall season. Periods of colder than normal weather will also occur, but the final numbers should tip to the mild side of normal.
IN FOCUS: BRITISH COLUMBIA 'LOCKING INTO TUMULTUOUS PATTERNS'
Above normal precipitation totals are expected for coastal areas during a season that is notoriously wet. However, we do not expect more rainy days than normal. In fact, we expect that this fall will include extended stretches of dry weather. But we also expect periods of rainy weather that will bring excessive totals with the potential to get a month's worth of rain in roughly a week.
THE PRAIRIES
We will see extended periods of both mild weather and cold weather that offset each other during the fall season across Saskatchewan and Manitoba. However, we expect that temperatures will tip to the mild side of normal across Alberta despite some periods of chilly weather.