Summer Outlook



The Weather Network delivers its 2014 Summer Outlook


Friday, June 20, 2014, 6:41 AM -

Following a long, record-breaking cold winter and a slow start to spring across most of the country, will Canadians be rewarded with a beautiful summer? The Weather Network’s meteorologists have issued this year’s Summer Outlook for the months of June, July and August. 

Above normal temperatures are expected for B.C., the Yukon and parts of southwest New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Consistent with the cooler trend experienced this spring, areas from Manitoba through Ontario should expect below normal temperatures, but that doesn’t mean an unpleasant summer by any means. 

“We’re finally seeing a turnaround across central Canada after months of well below normal temperatures,” said Chris Scott, Chief Meteorologist at The Weather Network. “While temperatures may average slightly below normal from Manitoba through Ontario, we expect this summer will still have its share of warm days. The hottest weather across the country will be found in the B.C. Interior where above normal temperatures are expected.” 

Developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean is the main foundation of this year’s Summer Outlook and the resulting forecast could contribute to other notable conditions in some parts of the country, including: 

  • Western Canada: Above normal temperatures combined with below average precipitation in B.C. this summer could increase the risk of forest fires through the B.C. interior. 

  • Central Canada (Saskatchewan to Quebec): Lesser likelihood of drought scenarios in crop lands and grain producing regions due to normal or above normal precipitation. 

  • Atlantic Canada: While a developing El Niño means fewer total storms across the Atlantic, an average risk remains for Atlantic Canada to be affected by tropical systems.

Watch the Regional 2014 Summer Outlooks: B.C. | Ontario | Atlantic | Alberta

This outlook covers the period from June 2014 through August 2014, inclusive (i.e. JJA)

Region Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
British Columbia Above normal except for the extreme northeast which is expected to be near normal. Below normal across most of the south-central interior up the Fraser River to Prince George. Near normal precipitation elsewhere.
Alberta Mainly near normal but above normal near the Rockies and upper Peace River valley. Near normal.
Saskatchewan Below normal in the east-central regions and along much of the Manitoba border. Near normal elsewhere. Generally near normal except for much of the northeast where above normal precipitation is forecast.
Manitoba Generally below normal temperatures but near normal in the northeast and far north. Near normal across much of the south and far north. Above normal elsewhere; generally across the Canadian Shield.
Ontario Below normal temperatures in most places. Near normal across the Hudson Bay Lowlands and adjacent areas to the south; along with most of eastern Ontario. Near normal across the Great Lakes and much of the Hudson Bay Lowlands. Above normal elsewhere across the north.
Quebec Below normal across most of the far west of southern Quebec. Above normal temperatures in northwest. Near normal elsewhere. Above normal precipitation south of the Eastmain River to Val-d’Or and west of the Saguenay. Near normal elsewhere.
The Maritimes and Newfoundland Near normal in most areas. Above normal in south-central and southwest New Brunswick and much of southwest Nova Scotia. Near normal precipitation in most areas but below normal across most of southwestern Nova Scotia.
Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut Above normal in the Yukon, except the far north, with above normal temperatures over most of the adjacent western N.W.T. as well. Above normal in Nunavut centered on Southampton Island. Near normal temperatures elsewhere. Near normal precipitation.

2014 summer temperature outlook

2014 summer temperature outlook

A regional breakdown of the summer forecast for select locations is provided below. The 3-month averages (JJA) are based on the 30-year period 1981 to 2010.

City Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook JJA Average Temperature JJA Average Precipitation
Vancouver Above normal Near normal High 21.3
Low 13.1
Mean 17.2
126.1 mm
Victoria Above normal Near normal High 21.6
Low 10.7
Mean 16.2
72.3 mm
Calgary Above normal Near normal High 21.9
Low 8.7
Mean 15.3
216.5 mm
Edmonton Near normal Near normal High 21.9
Low 8.4
Mean 15.2
223.2 mm
Regina Near normal Near normal High 24.7
Low 10.7
Mean 17.7
182.6 mm
Saskatoon Near normal Near normal High 24.2
Low 10.4
Mean 17.3
168.7 mm
Winnipeg Below normal Near normal High 24.8
Low 12.1
Mean 18.5
246.5 mm
Thunder Bay Below normal Near normal High 22.7
Low 9.5
Mean 16.2
260.0 mm
Sudbury Below normal Near normal High 23.5
Low 12.2
Mean 17.9
242.6 mm
Ottawa Near normal Near normal High 25.3
Low 14.2
Mean 19.8
270.2 mm
Toronto Below normal Near normal High 25.8
Low 14.6
Mean 20.2
225.3 mm
Windsor Below normal Near normal High 26.9
Low 16.8  
Mean 21.8
247.9 mm
Montreal Near normal Near normal High 25.2
Low 14.7
Mean 20.0
270.4 mm
Fredericton Above normal Near normal High 24.3
Low 11.6
Mean 18.0
256.3 mm
Moncton Near normal Near normal High 23.3
Low 11.4
Mean 17.4   
267.5 mm
Charlottetown Near normal Near normal High 21.8
Low 12.5
Mean 17.2
274.4 mm
Halifax Near normal Near normal High 22.6
Low 12.4
Mean 17.5
285.2 mm
St. John's Near normal Near normal High 19.0
Low 9.5
Mean 14.2
289.2 mm
Iqaluit Near normal Near normal High 9.9  
Low 2.7
Mean 6.3
154.4 mm
Yellowknife Near normal Near normal High 19.2
Low 10.4
Mean 14.8
109.0 mm
Whitehorse Above normal Near normal High 19.4
Low 6.8
Mean 13.1
106.3 mm

2014 summer precipitation outlook

2014 summer precipitation outlook

2014 Summer Outlook: Ontario
2014 Summer Outlook: Atlantic Canada
2014 Summer Outlook: Alberta
2014 Summer Outlook: British Columbia
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