Fall Outlook

Canada's 2014 Fall Outlook and Winter Preview


Tuesday, September 23, 2014, 6:00 AM - The Weather Network’s meteorologists have issued this year’s Fall Outlook for the months of September, October and November, with a sneak peek at the 2014/15 winter season as well.


"There's a lot of amazing weather stories that we saw this past summer," says Weather Network chief meteorologist Chris Scott. "Ontario and parts of the southern Prairies saw below seasonal temperatures, while parts of B.C., the Northwest Territories and eastern Canada were above normal."

Places like Kamloops, B.C. and Windsor, Ontario are both considered to be "typically hot cities," but the summer shaped up extremely differently in both areas this year.

"Kamloops over achieved with the number of days above average temperatures," Scott says. "The city saw 40 days above 30°C, 10 days more than the seasonal average."

Windsor on the other day hand, saw only eight days above 30°C, with the seasonal average closer to 20 days.

NEW FEATURE! Check the Precip Start Stop times in your area as well as what types of precip to expect

The rainfall was another huge story this summer with places like Regina, Saskatchewan and Fredericton, New Brunswick recording well above the seasonal averages.

"We saw flooding because of the big Prairie storm in June and the nearly doubled average rainfall in Fredericton was due in part to the remnants of Hurricane Arthur," Scott says.


What's going to happen this fall?

"In terms of temperatures, our team is expecting a continuation of the pattern we've been in, generally favouring above normal temperatures in parts of B.C. and chillier across the eastern Prairies and through Ontario and western Quebec," Scott says, adding that a "rollercoaster" weather pattern is to also be expected. "We're already seeing that in September with a lot of wild fluctuations of temperatures."

A couple of active storm tracks could also bring above normal precipitation to Manitoba, northern Ontario and through the Great Lakes and into Labrador.

*Spoiler alert! See below for a WINTER PREVIEW.*

Watch the Regional 2014 Fall Outlooks: B.C. | Alberta | Ontario | Atlantic |

This outlook covers the period from September 2014 through November 2014, inclusive (i.e. SON).

Region Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
British Columbia Above normal except for the extreme north and southeast where near normal temperatures are expected. Above normal for Haida Gwaii, and from the north coast and northern central coast inland to Williston Lake. Below normal in extreme south-central areas. 
Alberta Near normal in most places, but above normal in west-central areas and the upper Peace River Valley. Near normal.
Saskatchewan Below normal in the east-central regions and southeastern areas. Near normal elsewhere.  Generally near normal except for east-central portions where above normal precipitation is forecast. 
Manitoba Below normal temperatures forecast in central and southern areas with near normal values in the north. Near normal across much of the far south and north. Above normal elsewhere; generally across central and south-central sections. 
Ontario Below normal temperatures in most places. Near normal closer to Hudson Bay, for most of southern Ontario and across eastern Ontario.  Above normal for the far north and through southern parts of northeast Ontario southwards across Lake Huron and Algonquin Park. Near normal elsewhere. 
Quebec Below normal across much of the interior. Near normal temperatures in south Quebec, down the St. Lawrence Valley to far eastern parts and across the north.  Above normal precipitation in much of the province except near normal values across the south down the St. Lawrence to far eastern areas and in the far northwest. 
The Maritimes and Newfoundland Above normal along the southwest New Brunswick coast and across southwest Nova Scotia. Below normal in western Labrador. Near normal elsewhere.  Near normal precipitation in most areas, but above normal in western and northern Labrador. 
Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut Near normal across most of Canada's Far North, but above normal in extreme southwest Yukon and below normal in the north. Also, below normal in northern Northwest Territories and over north-central parts of Nunavut.  Above normal in much of western Northwest Territories and adjacent eastern Yukon, parts of eastern Northwest Territories and adjacent Nunavut and the tip of southeast Baffin Island. Below normal in northwest Nunavut with near normal precipitation elsewhere. 

2014 fall temperature outlook

2014 fall temperature outlook

A regional breakdown of the autumn forecast for select locations is provided below. The 3-month averages (SON) are based on the 30-year period 1981 to 2010.

City Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook SON Average Temperature SON Average Precipitation
Vancouver Above normal Near normal High 13.9
Low 7.1
Mean 10.5
360.5 mm
Victoria Above normal Near normal High 14.5 
Low 5.8 
Mean 10.2
271.8 mm
Calgary Near normal Near normal High 11.0 
Low -1.8 
Mean 4.6
73.5 mm
Edmonton Near normal Near normal High 9.2 
Low -3.5 
Mean 2.9
81.3 mm
Regina Below normal Near normal High 10.1 
Low -2.8 
Mean 3.6
71.4 mm
Saskatoon Near normal Near normal High 9.1 
Low -2.8 
Mean 3.1
67.3 mm
Winnipeg Below normal Near normal High 9.7 
Low -1.1
Mean 4.3
108.3 mm
Thunder Bay Below normal Near normal High 9.7
Low -1.0 
Mean 4.3
190.5 mm
Sudbury Below normal Above normal High 10.3 
Low 1.6 
Mean 6.0
270.5 mm
Ottawa Near normal Near normal High 12.8 
Low 3.5
Mean 8.2
258.1 mm
Toronto Near normal Near normal High 14.5 
Low 5.1
Mean 9.8
210.7 mm
Windsor Near normal Near normal High 15.8 
Low 7.0  
Mean 11.4
246.1 mm
Montreal Near normal Near normal High 13.2 
Low 4.2 
Mean 8.7
270.8 mm
Fredericton Near normal Near normal High 13.1 
Low 1.9
Mean 7.5
282.9 mm
Moncton Near normal Near normal High 13.2
Low 3.6
Mean 8.4   
293.4 mm
Charlottetown Near normal Near normal High 12.4 
Low 4.5 
Mean 8.5
320.7 mm
Halifax Near normal Near normal High 13.3 
Low 4.5 
Mean 8.9
381.2 mm
St. John's Near normal Near normal High 11.2 
Low 3.9 
Mean 7.6
433.8 mm
Iqaluit Near normal Near normal High -1.4   
Low -7.4 
Mean -4.4
115.6 mm
Yellowknife Near normal Near normal High 0.5 
Low -5.9 
Mean -2.7
91.5 mm
Whitehorse Near normal Near normal High 3.5 
Low -4.7 
Mean -0.6
76.5 mm

2014 fall precipitation outlook

2014 fall precipitation outlook


"The focus for the winter is all about El Nino," Scott says.

The thinking at this point is a weak El Nino, so what does that translate into?

"Historically with this type of El Nino, we get warmer than normal weather across B.C. and chillier in the eastern Prairies through Ontario and Quebec," Scott says.

We'll be tracking this pattern for winter all fall long, so be sure to check back for frequent updates on The Weather Network on TV and at

2014 Fall Outlook and Winter Preview: British Columbia
2014 Fall Outlook and Winter Preview: Alberta
2014 Fall Outlook and Winter Preview: Ontario
2014 Fall Outlook and Winter Preview: Atlantic Canada
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