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Will there be signs of summer for the long weekend?

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Dr. Doug Gillham
Meteorologist, PhD

Friday, May 9, 2014, 5:13 PM -

After one of the coldest winters in recent memory across much of Canada, most of us have been eagerly looking forward to summer weather. The Victoria Day long weekend represents the unofficial start to the summer season for many Canadians, so let’s take a long range look at the overall pattern for next weekend to see if there is any summer-like weather in your forecast.


MORE FROM DR. GILLHAM: El Nino is coming: What does that mean for Canada?


While there is usually considerable uncertainty in a forecast this far into the future, the models have a higher than typical level of agreement regarding the overall temperature pattern across the country. The colours on the maps below represent temperature relative to the average temperature for that date. The various shades of blue and green highlight regions where the model is forecasting below seasonal temperatures while the various shades of orange highlight regions where the model is forecasting above seasonal temperatures.

Starting on Friday, the Canadian model is forecasting above seasonal temperatures for parts of Quebec, Atlantic Canada, British Columbia and parts of Alberta. However, temperatures are forecast to be well below seasonal across Ontario and much of the southern Prairies.



The American based model (image below) shows the same overall pattern, though there is a noticeable difference over Alberta and the northern Prairies where above seasonal temperatures are more wide spread. At this point it looks like the warmer forecast is more likely for this region.



There are no major changes across the country as we head into Saturday. =The below seasonal temperatures are forecast to advance into Quebec, but Atlantic Canada and B.C. are forecast to remain at to above seasonal.



However, there is a more striking difference between the models for much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and northern Manitoba as the American model is much warmer across this region. The timing of a cold front will be critical as it looks like another round of below seasonal temperatures will arrive during the weekend, but we could see a mild day ahead of that front.



For Sunday, we see more of a balance in temperatures across the country as Atlantic Canada and B.C. are forecast to be closer to seasonal and temperatures across southern Ontario should recover a couple of degrees, though still below seasonal. Across the Prairies, the below seasonal temperatures are forecast to be more widespread on Sunday.



The American model is noticeably warmer on Sunday with above seasonal temperatures for much of the Prairies. However, at this point it looks like the cooler forecast from the Canadian model is more likely.



For Monday, there is a notable lack of widespread summer -like temperatures, but much of the country will be within a few degrees of seasonal and above seasonal temperatures are indicated for the southern coast of British Columbia and parts of Atlantic Canada.



The American model continues its trend of milder temperatures, but it is in agreement with the Canadian model in keeping temperatures below seasonal for much of the Prairies and southern Ontario.



It is too early to outline the threat for any rain through the weekend, but please check back early next week for updates on our forecast for sunshine vs. rain and for more specifics on temperatures.

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