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More nations lay their cards on the table for Paris 2015

Nations that have submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) as of June 30, 2015. Courtesy: World Resources Institute


Scott Sutherland
Meteorologist/Science Writer

Friday, July 3, 2015, 4:55 PM - Shell suffers "major blow" to Arctic drilling plans, "far-reaching and largely irreversible impacts" predicted for the oceans, and four more nations, including China, lay their emission cards on the table for the Paris climate talks. It's What's Up In Climate Change.

Shell's Arctic Drilling Plans Suffer "Major Blow"

Citing conservation rules meant to preserve walrus and polar bear populations in the Arctic, the US Department of Interior's Fish and Wildlife Service has put a serious kink in Shell's plans to use two drilling rigs in the Chukchi Sea.


Location of proposed Shell drilling
in Chukchi Sea. Credit: Wikipedia

According to ClimateProgress:

The Department of Interior’s Fish and Wildlife Service sent what’s called a Letter of Authorization to Shell, saying the company’s two drilling rigs must maintain a buffer of at least 15 miles between them in order to minimize the number of Pacific walruses and polar bears that could be harmed by exploratory drilling activities. Right now, the rigs are proposed to operate simultaneously only nine miles apart.
The new requirement aligns with existing regulations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act to protect marine species from harassment and displacement by industrial noise, but poses a significant restriction to Shell because the well sites identified in the company’s drilling plan lie well within 15 miles of each other. As a result, Shell must reassess its plan for simultaneous operations of its two contracted drilling rigs, since only one of its wells can be drilled at a time.
Shell had planned for simultaneous well drilling this summer because such operations can only proceed before sea ice begins to form during the Arctic autumn. Tuesday’s action by FWS halves the rate at which Shell will be allowed to drill its exploratory wells this summer, should it secure its remaining outstanding federal permit for drilling operations from the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement.

Shell apparently plans to adjust the positions of their rigs to comply with the letter of authorization, however another letter - this one from five US Senators to President Barack Obama - has called for Obama to completely rescind Shell's authorization to explore the Chukchi Sea for oil.

Oceans in Trouble, Even with Greenhouse Gas Reductions

A new international research study is predicting that - even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gases that would have us reaching the desired 2oC goal for global warming - ocean ecosystems "could see far-reaching and largely irreversible impacts" ... "which would especially be felt in developing countries."


Credit: Jean-Louis Teyssié, Permission to use granted by Alfred Wegener Institute

The research team, representing science institutions from a dozen nations around the world, examined the effects of increased carbon emissions on the world's oceans, and found four key messages emerge:

  1. The oceans greatly influence the climate system and provide important services for humans.
  2. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change on key marine and coastal species can already be seen today. Many of these plant and animal species will face significant risks in the decades to come, even if we succeed in capping carbon dioxide emissions.
  3. We urgently need an immediate and substantial reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in order to avoid widespread and above all irrevocable harm to ocean ecosystems and the services they provide.
  4. Fourth, as atmospheric CO2 increases, the available protection, adaptation and repair options for the ocean become fewer and less effective, and with them the odds that marine life forms can successfully adapt to these rapid changes.

According to lead researcher Jean-Pierre Gattuso, from the Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, in France, "If we can successfully limit the rise in air temperature to two degrees Celsius through the year 2100, the risks, especially for warm-water corals and bivalves in low to middle latitudes, will become critical. However, the remaining risks will remain fairly moderate." However, it's already feared that our current path, even with action planned by nations for the Paris 2015 climate conference, will completely miss the 2 degree C mark, and study co-author Prof Hans-Otto Pörtner, a researcher at the Alfred Wegener Institute, in Brenerhaven, Germany, presents the downside: "If we just go on with business as usual, by the end of this century the changes will hit nearly every ecosystem in the oceans and cause irreparable harm for marine life."

More Emission Commitments for Paris 2015

Iceland, South Korea, the Republic of Serbia and China have now joined a dozen other nations around the world in outlining their intended commitments towards greenhouse gas emissions, leading up to the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference (aka COP21) in Paris later this year.

The two maps shown below indicate which nations have put forward commitments during COP15 and COP16 - the 2009 conference in Copenhagen and the 2010 conference in Cancun - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, compared with those that have, so far, submitted commitments for the upcoming talks in December.

As shown, even though there is only a little over 5 months left, the southern hemisphere is definitely lagging behind.

One of the promising signs of the potential for success in Paris, though, is China - the largest national emitter in the world - now putting their commitments in writing and submitting for the world to see. They have promised to halt their contribution to the yearly rise in carbon emissions by the year 2030, cut their carbon intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) by 60-65 per cent below 2005 levels, increase their use of renewable energy and nuclear energy to 20 per cent, and increase their forest carbon stock volume (the amount of living biomass and soil that stores carbon) by roughly 4.5 billion cubic meters from 2005 levels.

However, critiques so far are either dismissing the goals as unrealistic, or saying that China isn't going far enough with their plans - that they could reach peak both emissions and carbon intensity much sooner than their projected target. One benefit to their plan, though, is the detailed plan they've outlined on exactly how they plan on meeting their goals.

Entering their INDCs at this point, however, will allow other nations to review them, and possibly allow them to influence China into putting something a bit more aggressive into place once the talks begin in December.

Sources ClimateProgress | Alfred Wegener Institute | World Resources Institute | WRI Blog | E&E ClimateWire

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