The world could completely abandon fossil fuels by 2050
Meteorologist/Science Writer
Thursday, September 24, 2015, 2:11 PM - Climate summit commitments judged insufficient to avoid warming, divestment from fossil fuel investment soars into the trillions, and the world could be running on 100 per cent renewable energy by 2050.
Warming unavoidable?
Just over two months from now, representatives from nations around the world will be gathering in Paris to discuss a new plan for addressing the threat of climate change.
However, according to a Reuters report, U.N. Executive Secretary Christiana Figueres said that the current pledges - the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) from a total of 62 nations - only cover 70 per cent of global emissions. Furthermore, a report in The Guardian said that information from UK government sources revealed that the remaining INDCs that are expected to come in before the summit would only bring that figure up to 85 per cent.
Based on those numbers, covering only 70 per cent of emissions would apparently only limit us to 3.0 degrees C of warming, while reaching 85 per cent of emissions would mean a 2.5 degree C rise. With the intended target being 2.0 degrees C of warming - meant to avoid the worst consequences of climate change - the pledges, as they stand now and those expected, are not sufficient.
"What the INDCs will do is mark a very substantial departure from business as usual," Figueres said, according to The Guardian. However, she went further to say: "Is 3oC acceptable? No."
The world is already committed to a certain level of warming based on the emissions that have already been released into the atmosphere.
As of 2015, global temperatures have risen by 0.85oC since the start of the Industrial Revolution. If we stopped emitting greenhouse gases today, the contribution already added to the atmosphere, along with any secondary effects (such as climate feedbacks), would likely mean another 0.6oC of warming by the end of this century.
The goal of this summit is to avoid the extra 0.55oC of warming that would push us over the 2.0 degrees C limit. Will the deal do this? Perhaps not, however the deal we do get will certainly be a start.
"We are going to get an agreement and it will have all the major countries in it, which did not look likely a few years ago," said Nick Mabey, chief executive of the non-profit organization E3G, according to The Guardian. "It is not going to deliver 2oC overnight, but it will put in place immediate action and reduce warming."
Fossil fuel divestments soar
A major trend has taken over in the past year.
According to a report from Arabella Advisors, individuals, corporations, universities, faith-based organizations and even governments - with assets adding up to trillions of dollars - have pledged to divest from fossil fuels.
Credit: Arabelle Advisors
According to Arabelle Advisors' report:
The movement has grown beyond mission-driven institutions as large and influential organizations from new sectors are divesting their assets of fossil fuels. Large pension funds and private companies now account for over 95 percent of the assets of those committed to divestment. Recent commitments from several large pension funds have contributed significantly to the growth in total assets of divesting institutions, including the Norway Pension Fund, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, and Sweden’s AP2 Pension, along with other pension funds in the US, Australia, Norway, and Denmark.
Overall, the average total assets of a divesting institution has increased nearly thirty-fold, signaling the movement’s expanded reach among large investors. In 2014, institutions pledging to divest held $349 million in assets, on average. Today, such institutions hold $9.8 billion in assets, on average.
From the report, a major force behind this push to divest from fossil fuels and reinvest in clean energy comes from banks, such as HSBC, informing people of the risks of continued investment in fossil fuel companies, whose value will be reduced by climate change action and the shift to clean energy.
World can "go green" by 2050
Based on Greenpeace's new Energy [R]evolution 2015 report, released on Sept 21, the world is now at a point where we could switch over completely to renewable energy sources by the year 2050, using only existing technology, and the entire effort would be cost-neutral.
Credit: GreenPeace
According to the report:
100% renewable energy for all is achievable by 2050, and is the only way to ensure the world does not descend into catastrophic climate change. Dynamic change is taking place in the energy sector. Renewable energies have become mainstream in most countries, and prices have fallen dramatically. The report shows we could transform our energy supply, switching to renewables, which would mean a stabilization of global CO2 emissions by 2020, and bringing down emissions towards near zero emissions in 2050.
The Energy [R]evolution proposes a phase-out of fossil fuels starting with lignite (the most carbon-intensive) by 2035, followed by coal (2045), then oil and then finally gas (2050).
Not only is this possible, according to the plan, but it will create jobs in the process, and it will actually end up saving us more money than it costs.
"The investment costs for the switch to 100% renewables by 2050 is about US $1 trillion a year," says the report. "But because renewable energies don’t need fuel, the average fuel cost savings are US $1.07 trillion a year."
What will it take to enact this plan?
"It's basically political will," says Emily Rochon, a global energy strategist at Greenpeace, according to ThinkProgress. "The primary premise of the Energy [R]evolution scenario is we have all of the solutions already on the table to get there."
Sources: Reuters | The Guardian | UN IPCC | DeSmog Canada | Arabelle Advisors | Think Progress | Greenpeace
