The U.S. model indicates a storm moving south of the Great Lakes towards the east coast overnight Tuesday into Wednesday:

U.S. model forecast storm position Wednesday morning, February 5th. This model shows significant snow (blue-purple) across southern Ontario moving into Quebec and the Maritimes. Courtesy WeatherBell.

The Canadian model paints a similar picture:

Canadian model forecast storm position Wednesday afternoon, February 5th. Colours indicate amount of precipitation occurring in previous 6 hours. Courtesy WeatherBell.

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These forecasts are supported by the European computer model in suggesting snow for southern Ontario, Quebec and eventually the Maritimes. The tendency for strong, large systems like the one being predicted is for the computer model predictions to trend north and west in the days leading up to the storm. This isn't a guarantee that the same trend will apply with this storm, but I think the odds favour heavy precipitation from this storm hitting southern Ontario. If the storm were to track far enough north and west, some mixed precipitation and even rain is possible. If the storm were to track just slightly south, then it would be a near miss.

It’s still a wide range of possibilities, but clearly there is a storm on the horizon that needs to be watched closely. If the computer model solutions remain consistent over the next couple days, our forecast team will be able to put a more definite and precise forecast together as we approach the weekend. Stay tuned.

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