Low pressure in the Gulf has our attention, here's why

Wednesday, September 23, 2015, 12:55 PM - It's been quiet in the Atlantic basin this year, but as of Wednesday there are forecast weather models developing a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, all with varying intensities.

Earlier this week hurricane specialist Eric Blake tweeted "Still no hurricanes in Atlantic basin west of 55W. "[First] time since 1914 that 0 noted by this late in the year."

Much of the reasoning, according to The Weather Network meteorologist Dayna Vettese, lies in the fact that wind shear and dry air continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region as it has for most of the summer. Tropical cyclones depend on rich moisture to develop and sustain themselves as well as low wind shear. When we have high wind shear, it disturbs the capability of the thunderstorms and clouds in the area to organize into a tropical cyclone.

Satellite image of the quiet Gulf of Mexico on September 20th. Image courtesy NASA.

If you recall Tropical Storm Bill, the second named storm of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season, managed to form in an area of low shear and moisture when there was a brief window of opportunity mid-June in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Bill was short lived having maximum winds of 95 km/h. Though Bill was relatively weak, it did cause damage in the form of heavy rain, flooding, and wind. For Canadians, it actually contributed to an improved Father's Day forecast that shifted last minute from rain to shine. In Central America, flooding and landslides occurred due to Bill’s rainfall. Heavy rain and strong winds knocked down trees and caused flooding in Texas and Oklahoma. Otherwise, the hostile environment currently in place in the Gulf of Mexico region has led to a lack of development of tropical systems.

Satellite image of Bill. Image courtesy NOAA.

Looking ahead, a couple of forecast weather models are developing a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico with varying intensities. At the moment, it’s tough to say whether this will come to pass or not. The environment, at the present time, is not conducive to tropical development but as Bill did, it’s possible for an area of unsettled weather to find a narrow window to develop. Right now we have more confidence in saying that a low pressure system could develop into next week and bring heavy rain to the surrounding Gulf States and countries, which is certainly something to keep an eye on. Currently, we would have low confidence in indicating whether or not a tropical system will find enough of a window of opportunity to develop from that area of predicted unsettled weather, and if it does, where it would track. The fact that several weather models are indicated some form of low pressure system in the Gulf next week has our attention and will be something we will continue to monitor over the next week.

September 23, 2015, GEM forecast weather model's solution for possible system in the Gulf of Mexico around September 28, 2015. Courtesy WxBell

September 23, 2015, GEM forecast weather model's solution for possible system in the Gulf of Mexico around September 28, 2015.

The animation below shows the volatility that currently exists and how it will try to organize itself in the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.

It's been eight years since a Category 5 hurricane has formed in the Atlantic. While Category 5 storms are relatively rare, researchers say the lack of activity may be the result of nothing more than a lucky break.

No major hurricanes measuring Category 3 or greater have made landfall in the U.S. for the past nine years. While Hurricane Danny did form in the Atlantic and reached Category 3 status, it did not make landfall in the U.S.

The current streak the U.S. is experiencing hasn't been seen since record-keeping began in 1851.

While the drought is unusual, the factors causing it couldn't be more ordinary.

RELATED: First tropical storm of 2015 could form this week

“There’s been a lot of talk about how unusual the string is, and we want to quantify it,” hurricane researcher Timothy Hall of the NASA Goddard Institute, and lead author of the study, says in a statement.

“When we looked qualitatively at the nine-year drought, they aren't inactive seasons."

In other words, there hasn't been a substantial change in the number of tropical cyclones over the years and the amount of energy driving them hasn't dwindled.

“I don’t believe there is a major regime shift that’s protecting the U.S.,” Hall says.

IT ONLY TAKES ONE

While the lack of activity may be seen as promising to some, forecasters are quick to point out it only takes one big storm to make a hurricane season memorable.